Gaza war pays Netanyahu rich dividends? Survey shows Likud party to emerge largest in election

An opinion poll on Friday showed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud party would form the largest single party in parliament if an election were held now, underlining a gradual recovery since the October 7 attacks last year.

The poll, published in the left-wing Ma’ariv daily, showed Likud winning 24 seats, against 32 at present, its highest score in the Ma’ariv poll since October 7. It put the National Unity Party led by centrist former general Benny Gantz on 21.

Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition with a clutch of nationalist-religious and ultra-Orthodox parties would lose any election held now, with 53 seats in the 120-seat parliament, against 58 for the main opposition bloc, according to the poll.

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But Likud’s advance shows how far Netanyahu has moved since last year when his standing was hit by public fury at the security failures when Hamas gunmen stormed into Israel, killing 1,200 people and taking more than 250 hostages.

Earlier in the war against Hamas in Gaza, opinion polls regularly showed Likud gaining no more than 16-18 seats in parliament.

The survey also showed Netanyahu’s personal standing as prime minister recovering, with respondents favouring him over any alternative potential candidate apart from former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who is now out of politics.

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Despite coalition tensions between Netanyahu and several ministers, and regular protests by Israelis demanding a deal to bring home the Gaza hostages, the government has held together for almost two years. An election is not due until 2026.

Netanyahu has clashed with Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, from his own party, and two hardliners - National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.

While Likud has climbed steadily, support has not followed for the two nationalist religious parties, Jewish Power, led by Ben-Gvir, and Religious Zionism, under Smotrich, giving both parties an incentive not to leave the government.