France: Will Macron lose another PM? No-confidence vote against Bayrou today

In his four decades of political career, French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou will face the toughest test on Wednesday.

Bayrou will face a no-confidence vote on Wednesday in the parliament that comes as a side-effect of his usage of a ’nuclear option’ to pass the annual budget. Bayrou used Article 49.3 to pass the budget without a vote but the provision also allows Opposition lawmakers to bring a no-confidence vote.

As Bayrou runs a minority government, he is set to have a bumpy ride. The trust vote would not be just a defining moment of his career but a test of President Emmanuel Macron as well who has been under intense pressure for nearly a year. While he effectively checked the rise of far-right by weaving a tactical alliance with leftists , his decision to deny leftists premiership and instead appoint moderate right-wingers and centrists —first Michel Barnier and then Bayrou— has plunged France into a political crisis. Barnier was also ousted in a trust vote that Bayrou is now facing.

Can Bayrou survive trust vote?

Even as Bayrou is running a minority government, there are indications that he may survive the trust vote as he has convinced socialists to be on his side and far-right National Rally (RN) has said it would not vote against his government for the sake of political stability of the country.

RN leader Jordan Bardella has said that while Bayrou’s budget is “bad”, the country needs a budget so the party does not intend to vote against the government.

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“We need to avoid uncertainty because many of our fellow citizens… are extremely worried about possible long-term instability,” said Bardella, according to AFP.

Similarly, Socialist party leader Olivier Faure framed the decision to not vote against the government as an act for the greater good. He said that voting against the government would have resulted in France having “a prime minister further to the right” or even “the resignation of a head of state”, as per the agency.

“We chose to give France a budget,” said Faure.

Bayrou’s ruling coalition is a mix of centrist and conservative members of parliament. The indirect support from socialists would be a major boost for him as that would mark the end of a broad alliance of left-wing parties.

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What if Bayrou fails loses trust vote?

For a politician who has prided in being a son of the soil in his four decades of political career, a defeat in Wednesday’s trust vote would essentially close Bayrou’s career on a humiliating note. If Bayrou loses the trust vote, he would become the shortest-serving premier in modern French history — he assumed office in December

However, the stakes are not just personal. France’s international standing is on the line as well.

If Bayrou’s government falls, the country would be left without a budget at a time when investors are questioning whether France —Europe’s second-largest economy— can credibly repay its debts, noted Politico’s Clea Caulcutt.

The collapse of Bayrou’s government would also essentially tell the world that France has been rendered ungovernable. Such a moment would come when fellow European heavyweight Germany —Europe’s largest economy— is undergoing political crisis amid sluggish economic growth.

Summing up the situation, OpinionWay pollster Bruno Jeanbart told Politico, “If Bayrou fails, the markets will interpret his downfall as proof that no one else can succeed. He’s a centrist, so if he can’t reach a compromise, who can?”