France: Macron can call for an election again. Will he?

One year after France’s snap parliamentary election rattled the country’s politics and nearly delivered power to the far right, President Emmanuel Macron once again holds the constitutional authority to dissolve the National Assembly. Though he has publicly dismissed the idea, behind the scenes, signs suggest he might still be considering a second gamble.

Macron’s decision to call last year’s election, following the European vote on June 9, 2024, was a political shockwave. Aiming to halt the momentum of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, he instead weakened his centrist government and triggered an unstable legislative landscape.

Now, with Prime Minister François Bayrou’s government barely holding on, speculation is growing over whether Macron might make another high-stakes move.

Aftermath of a gamble

The 2024 snap election severely damaged Macron’s parliamentary standing. His party lost its fragile majority while the far right secured a record number of seats. The president later acknowledged that the dissolution had brought “more instability than serenity” and declared, “I take full responsibility for that” in his New Year address. Yet, for many, it fell short of a full apology.

Critics within his own circle viewed the move as reckless. Former Prime Minister Michel Barnier was forced out less than 100 days into his tenure, and France entered the new year without an approved budget. Macron’s advisors say he believed the government would collapse during budget negotiations that autumn, and it was better to “provoke” his fate “rather than suffer it,” Politico reported citing a former minister who opposed the election.

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Among Macron’s long-time confidants, such as chief of staff Alexis Kohler and ex-adviser Philippe Grangeon, the president is seen as a compulsive risk-taker. A former colleague described him as someone who leaves “the casino with his pockets nearly empty but convinced he’ll beat the house on the next try.”

Bayrou under pressure

Macron’s frustration appears to have grown since appointing Bayrou as prime minister. The centrist leader is seen by many in the Elysée as cautious and indecisive, traits that sharply contrast with Macron’s instinctive and confrontational approach. “Macron is boiling over. It’s driving him crazy,” a close friend of the president said.

Bayrou is reportedly under increasing pressure, with speculation that lawmakers could remove him during budget negotiations or over a resurfaced child abuse scandal from his time as education minister in the 1990s. If Bayrou were to fall, Macron could nominate a replacement, with Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu reportedly in contention, or call a new election.

While no formal plans for a new dissolution have been confirmed, Macron’s unpredictable style has left many in the French political class watching closely for signs of movement.

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The last power

Though Macron rejected the idea of calling another election during a visit to Madagascar in April, allies have advised him not to rule it out completely. Some believe maintaining the possibility gives the president leverage over rival parties in the Assembly. François Hollande, Macron’s former political mentor and predecessor, reportedly believes the president is “of course” still thinking about another vote, calling it Macron’s “last power.”

Macron’s instinct-led approach has proven costly before, but he remains undeterred. In a now-infamous meeting on election night last June, Macron brushed off the chances of a left-wing alliance forming, saying, “Good luck to the left in uniting in three weeks.” They did, and their hastily formed alliance ended up blocking the far right from taking over the premiership.

For now, no official decision has been made. But one year after a snap election threw French politics into turmoil, the possibility of another remains real. As one of Macron’s friends put it, the president’s agitation and instinct to act could once again take France to the polls.