After hung parliament, Macron has a new headache: Who will be France’s next PM?

French President Emmanuel Macron got a breather with the election results as the far-right National Rally (RN) did not win, but the relief is set to be short-lived.

Macron already a has new headache: the formation of the new government and the appointment of the prime minister.

This is set to be tricky as no party or bloc won a clear majority and differences exist even among the leftist New Popular Front (NPF) that has emerged as the largest bloc in the French elections. The bloc comprises moderates as well as far-left parties and the emergence of a far-left prime minister or a government with senior far-left figures at key posts could be problematic for not just Macron but also for France and Europe.

The NPF has said that the bloc would announce its prime ministerial candidate this week . The question on everyone’s mind is that whether they will be from the moderate or the extremist faction of the party. The bigger question is the nature of the government that will come up: will there be a coalition of some sorts between NPF and smaller parties or will there be a minority government with Macron’s centrist Ensemble (ENS) bloc’s support from the outside?

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A minority government will be much more vulnerable to political instability and legislative deadlock as deals would have to be struck on individual issues of governance and legislation and there would be no mandate to govern freely.

How is the French Prime Minister appointed?

In the French political system, the president is directly elected by the voters and the prime minister is appointed by the president.

The president cannot, however, appoint anyone as prime minister. His pick for prime minister has to be approved by the parliament so the prime minister is almost always from the largest party or bloc. In this case, the largest bloc NPF has the claim to the prime ministerial post.

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Once appointed, the prime minster appoints their cabinet. Foreign and defence affairs, however, remain with the president, and the PM-led government is tasked with running the country’s domestic policy and the everyday governance.

For now, Gabriel Attal from Macron’s own centrist bloc is continuing in a caretaker capacity until the new prime minister is appointed.

Macron is in his cohabitation era

In France, the situation when the president and prime minister are from different parties or blocs is called ‘cohabitation’.

The cohabitation can often induce instability in governance and polity as both sides can disrupt each-other’s agenda. A cohabitation between Macron and Jordan Bardella, the prime ministerial candidate of the far-right RN, would have been particularly tricky as the agenda of the two is vastly different.

While cohabitation between Macron and the NPF would not be a cakewalk either, there are signs that it wouldn’t be as bad as the Macron-Bardella.

Firstly, Macron’s centrist bloc and the leftist NPF have already collaborated to prevent the far-right’s victory. After it became clear with the first-round election results that the RN’s victory was certain, the two entered into a tactical voting arrangement where more than 200 candidates withdrew to consolidate all non-right voters behind a single voter in a constituency. The plan worked and this is how the RN was relegated to the third position despite winning most votes .

Secondly, even though there are extremist elements within the NPF, the bloc is much more moderate than RN and is much more manageable for Macron .

“Contrary to the prevalent analysis on social media, the left-wing alliance NPF is not made up of all extremist parties. It comprises of four main parties and only two of them are far-left, while the other two, Socialists and Greens, are relatively moderate. The four-party alliance is more moderate compared to the National Rally and it will therefore be much easier for Macron to enter into a cohabitation with them instead of the far-right, provided the PM is chosen from the moderate of its factions,” said Swasti Rao, a scholar of Europe at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA).

Moreover, it is also in NPF’s favour to maintain a working relationship with Macron. If everyday governance is hit because of a tussle between NPF’s prime minister and Macron, then the anti-incumbency that has so far plagued Macron and his coalition would also be shared by the NPF. So, it is in NPF’s favour as well to maintain a working relationship so as to not throw away the chance that they have got after many years to run the government.

These are potential PM candidates

The NPF has said that it will announce its prime ministerial candidate this week.

The most controversial figure is the far-left France Unbowed party’s leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon. He is widely detested in France and is resented by several within the left-wing bloc as well. His career is tainted with allegations of rabid antisemitism and his plans for the upcoming government include unpopular moves like hiking taxes. Mélenchon has long championed hiking the tax rate to 90 per cent for high-earners in France. The NPF has included the point in its manifesto this time at his bidding.

Mélenchon’s party has won the most seats within the NPF (75) and that makes him a claimant to the prime minister’s post. But his age, 72, and his baggage makes him an unpopular choice, but since he has legitimate claim to the post, he or a proxy of him are definitely in the race.

Considering the resentment against Melenchon, the likeliest alternative of Melenchon among the far-left for the prime ministerial candidacy is François Ruffin, a journalist and a filmmaker who has publicly disavowed Melenchon.

It is also likely that other parties in the bloc, the Greens, the Socialists, and the Communists, could prop a candidate from their ranks to ditch the extremists altogether. The next-biggest party in the NPF after France Unbowed is the Socialist Party with 65 seats. The likeliest candidates from the Socialists are party chief Olivier Faure, outgoing group president Boris Vallaud, or lead EU candidate Raphael Glucksmann.

Among the socialists, the Politico Europe has reported that Vallaud is the likeliest candidate. He was first elected as an MP in 2017 and is an alum of France’s public service school just like Macron. He has been previously the Deputy Director General of Elysee, the French presidential palace.

A wild card candidate could also be former President Fracois Hollande, according to the magazine.

Years after being effectively exiled from politics over scandals, Hollande has now been elected as an MP.

To avoid political deadlock among the allies, there is also the option of bringing a political outsider. One such option is unionist Laurent Berger, whose name was recommended by Glucksmann — himself a premiership hopeful. The magazine reported that Berger is a moderate and is recognised on both right and left of the spectrum. While his moderate politics could enhance his support among moderates of Macron’s bloc and NPF, it could be a non-starter with Melenchon.