Fracture in trans-Atlantic ties: Europe will have to learn to stand on its own

Jean Monnet, one of the founding fathers of the European Union, once remarked, ‘Europe has never existed. One must genuinely create Europe.’

And recently, Munich Security Conference Chairman Christoph Heusgen was visibly moved to tears while acknowledging that the conference was ‘trans-Atlantic’ till before Vice President JD Vance’s speech. Heusgen was referring to Vance’s address, where the American VP criticised Europe’s immigration policies, likened European leaders to ‘communist commissars’, and questioned the decline of free speech in the continent. Heusgen stated, ‘We must fear that our common value base is not so common anymore.’

Clearly, the concept of ‘West’ is crumbling. Not only the one in which its core values and interests are being challenged, but where the fabled ‘trans-Atlantic’ partnership appears to be under strain. Europe, the founder of the Westphalian world order, the ruler of the 19th-century world, the virtue monger of the 20th century, might find itself increasingly ‘alone’ in the international arena.

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The rise of authoritarian powers like Russia and China as the primary actors of global politics, a turbulent West Asia, the rise of anti-neocolonial sentiments in Africa and Asia, and an ‘isolationist’ America—the time is testing Europe!

Amid this, a faltering economy and the rise of ultra-nationalist sentiments take the sheen away from the ‘liberal-idealist’ vision of Europe. War in Ukraine, rising inflation, job crisis, and failure to address the native-migrant divide have resulted in the loss of multiculturalism and growing dissatisfaction among the Europeans.

The two largest economies of the Union, Germany and France, both face political and economic turbulence. French President Emmanuel Macron announced a new government last December, the fourth government for France in the last year, after the previous cabinet collapsed in a historic vote prompted by fighting over the country’s budget, and Germany had snap elections held on February 23, following the collapse of the coalition government led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, after he fired his finance minister.

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France entered the new year for the first time without a proper budget after lawmakers ousted Prime Minister Michel Barnier as he planned to bring down a massive budget deficit, which was 6.2 per cent of GDP last year.

The world’s third largest economy, Germany, shrank for the second year straight as the fiscal rule of the debt break limits the government spending. Debt break was a major issue of the elections held Sunday.

Further, Trump’s threats to take over Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark, which is a NATO and EU member, question the very founding principles of trans-Atlantic partnership and if the US can be a security guarantee for Europe.

Only this Wednesday, the spokesperson of the French government said that Europe must no longer depend on the US for its security—in line with the more autonomous security policy for the continent advocated by President Macron. However, Macron, before his meeting with Donald Trump on Monday, has expressed the will to convey to his counterpart that the joint interest of Americans and Europeans lies in not being weak in the face of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Both Macron and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who is prepared to put British troops on the ground in Ukraine if there is a deal to end the war with Russia, are set to meet Trump this week. And so are the chances of a sooner or later Trump-Putin meeting if the ongoing talks in Saudi Arabia to end the Russia-Ukraine war work well.

So how far Europe can rely on its prime partner, perhaps once a friend, philosopher, guide—the US—is questionable.

Whether it is the reciprocal tariff issue, or a tariff regime that disrupts World Trade Organisation rules, fracturing global trade, or the Trump administration’s decision to withdraw from the World Health Organisation and UNESCO, or to cut funding to other United Nations bodies, or on imposing sanctions on the International Criminal Court—Trump 2.0 presents a very different nature of international order for Brussels’ version of Europe to agree upon.

Even on climate change the differences are stark, and perhaps far wide to abridge. President Trump, on the day of the inauguration, vowed to ‘re-exit’ the Paris Agreement of 2015 and has been advocating a fossil-fuelled economy based on the ‘Drill Baby Drill’ principle.

Europe is the world’s most trade-dependent economy, and the EU has been a self-proclaimed advocate of multilateralism, human rights, and climate action.

Based on these uncertainties, the advocates of strategic autonomy of the EU ask the member nations to pull up defence expenditure, spending at least 2 per cent of their respective GDP in this sector. They point out that the EU’s economy is nearly ten times the size of Russia’s, and the defence expenditure combined is four times that of Moscow. They ask, ‘Europe alone must mean Europe united.’

However, geopolitical tensions, a faltering economy, and political chaos have also given the far right greener grounds to feed upon.

From Romania to Germany to Italy, the ‘rise of the right’ is a phenomenon across the continent. Euroscepticism runs throughout the continent. Last year, in EU parliamentary elections, the far right made significant gains. The rise of parties such as France’s Rassemblement National and Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) are such cases. In Sunday’s national elections, AfD doubled its share of votes since the last elections in 2021, showing the strongest performance of the far right since World War II.

In the November 2023 general elections in the Netherlands, the Party for Freedom, led by Geert Wilders, achieved a historic victory by becoming the largest party in the Dutch parliament.

Romanian independent far-right presidential candidate Calin Georgescu is gaining momentum, though it remains unclear whether he will be allowed to run, but street opinion can’t be overlooked. Victor Orban, Hungary’s prime minister since 2010, is well-known for his Eurosceptic and pro-Russian views.

The idea of ‘Europe’ must first rekindle faith in itself among its own citizens. Election results from Germany, the largest economy of the EU, are crucial. France and Germany are the two states most competent to lead renewed faith in the conceptualisation of the continent as a unified value system.

The onus lies on the leaders of all the 27 member states, and particularly on Macron and the upcoming German Chancellor. Friedrich Merz, leader of Germany’s conservative Christian Democratic Union, is set become the next German Chancellor after attaining a ‘modest victory’ in Sunday’s elections. He has talked of the need for ‘independence’ for Europe and promises to have Germany lead the continent. It’s time for the EU to reassure its own citizens and the world at large of its own relevance and forge a more independent path to take the lead in defending its values and interests.

Yes, Europe indeed faces uncertainties, but somewhere it is time the continent realises the geopolitical contexts are so different that there is no guarantee of an all-weather trans-Atlantic partnership. The US has its own interests, which may be significantly different from the greater idea of the West or the interests of the EU or NATO. And there was a reason Henry Kissinger remarked, “America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests.”

It is time Europeans must genuinely create Europe!

Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.