Far-right Reform UK to beat Labour to be largest party if elections are held today: Survey

If elections would be held today, the far-right Reform UK would beat the ruling Labour Party and emerge as the single-largest party, according to a survey.

Currently, the Reform led by Nigel Farage has just five members of parliament. However, the party emerged as a force in last year’s British parliamentary elections where it ate into a substantial chunk of Conservative Party’s support base and made way for the Labour’s landslide victory.

If elections would be held today, the Reform would win 180 of 650 seats and the Labour and Conservatives would be tied with 165 seats each, according to a survey by More in Common and reported by The Daily Telegraph.

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This would meant that no party would win a majority and either they would need to enter into a complicated coalition or run a minority government.

Reform to gain at Labour’s expense

Just like the Labour gained at the expense of Conservatives’ expense in the 2024 British elections, the Reform would gain at the cost of Labour if elections are held today, according to the More in Common survey.

The Labour Party would be headed to a rout as it would lose lose 153 seats to Reform, 64 to the Conservatives, 23 to the Scottish National Party (SNP), and five to independent candidates, as per the survey.

As many as nine Labour ministers would lose their seats, including Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, Defence Secretary John Healey, Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy, Health Secretary Wes Streeting.

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‘British politics has fragmented to an unprecedented level’

Luke Tryl, the UK director of More in Common, told The Telegraph that the British politics has fragmented to an “unprecedented level”.

Tryl further said that the voters’ coalition that brought Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer of Labour to power last year has “splintered Right and Left”.

“Nigel Farage’s Reform UK emerges as the biggest winners of this Parliament so far, with our model suggesting that they could well become the largest party in Parliament, something almost unthinkable a year ago. Though the party remains a long way from being able to secure a majority, it is clear Reform’s momentum is real and the question is whether their new level of support represents the start of a path to government or a ceiling that Farage’s polarising brand finds hard to overcome,” said Tryl.

Tryl further said that Labour now finds itself “on the wrong side of a disillusioned electorate” and is at the risk of “suffering historic losses in its heartlands”.