On November 27, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its allies launched a sudden and powerful attack in Aleppo, quickly defeating government forces with little resistance. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, HTS now controls most of the city, including key areas. This offensive occurred alongside heavy Syrian and Russian airstrikes on rebel-held regions, ending a period of relative calm in the area since 2016.
According to AFP, Charles Lister, a researcher at the Middle East Institute, called the attack “potentially game-changing.” The attack also came after a recent ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel in Lebanon.
The Syrian civil war, which erupted in 2011 following the Arab Spring protests, has claimed over 500,000 lives and displaced millions. Assad’s regime, supported by allies Russia and Iran, has fought opposition groups ranging from pro-democracy activists to extremist factions like HTS. Aleppo, an ancient trading hub, has been a strategic flashpoint, enduring a devastating siege in 2016 that solidified Assad’s control. However, the city’s recently fell for the first time to insurgents.
Regional and global implications
Aleppo’s fall has triggered ripples across West Asia. Russia, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s staunch ally, has intensified airstrikes in support of Syrian forces, aiming to regain lost ground. Meanwhile, Iran has reaffirmed its commitment to backing Assad, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi emphasising “firm support” during a recent visit to Damascus.
Turkey, which supports some rebel factions, has called for an end to airstrikes on Idlib, warning of escalating regional tensions. The US, along with France, Germany and UK issued a joint statement urging de-escalation and renewed commitment to a Syrian-led political solution under United Nations guidelines.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsTulsi Gabbard and what’s next for Syria and US policy?
As Aleppo’s future remains uncertain, the world faces a pressing challenge to bring peace and rebuild Syria. The situation is tense with rebel forces gaining strength while Assad’s government struggles to recover. This crisis coincides with the US Senate’s expected confirmation of Tulsi Gabbard, a former Congresswoman, as the new Director of National Intelligence under President-elect Donald Trump.
Gabbard is known for her controversial views on West Asian policy. In 2017, she met Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, sparking criticism from figures like Nikki Haley, who accused Gabbard of legitimising a leader blamed for war crimes. Gabbard has also expressed doubts about the US effort to remove Assad and has questioned evidence of his use of chemical weapons. Her remark that “Assad is not the enemy of the United States” has reignited debates on America’s role in Syria.
Gabbard’s anti-interventionist stance contrasts with Trump’s unpredictable and sometimes aggressive foreign policy. With Aleppo now under the control of HTS and Russia reasserting its presence in Syria, the US faces an immediate test in balancing diplomacy and intervention. There are concerns that Gabbard’s approach, which prioritises diplomacy over military action, could clash with traditional US strategies, potentially straining alliances and complicating future policy decisions.
Gabbard’s political rise has been driven by her opposition to long wars and efforts to rebuild other countries. Once confirmed as Director of National Intelligence, she will have to walk a tightrope making sure her personal views don’t interfere with global diplomacy, especially in the unstable region of West Asia.
West Asia challenge for Trump
President-elect Trump has promised to bring peace to West Asia, but his plans remain unclear. During his first term, Trump made moves like pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal and approving the killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, which significantly raised tensions in the region.
Trump’s foreign policy has often swung between moments of isolationism and military assertiveness. His abrupt decisions—such as withdrawing US troops from Syria while approving airstrikes—have left both allies and adversaries uncertain about his next steps. Trump’s “America First” approach has often prioritised domestic issues over international concerns. Whether this unpredictability is a boon or a bane for US geopolitics will become clearer when he assumes office in January.
Strength in divergence?
The partnership between Trump and Gabbard represents a larger debate within US politics: whether to intervene in foreign conflicts or to hold back. As Aleppo faces more violence, this unlikely duo will need to navigate their differences to prevent a fragmented foreign policy that could undermine US global standing. How they balance diplomacy and military engagement will not only influence Syria’s future but also shape America’s position in the world for years to come.