 "Explained: How war in Ukraine could cause spike in COVID-19 cases")
More than three million Ukrainian citizens have fled the country to escape Russia’s military onslaught since it invaded Ukraine a month ago, according to UNHCR data.
While neighbouring European countries have welcomed Ukrainian refugees with open arms, the World Health Organisation {WHO} has warned that the humanitarian crisis unfolding in Ukraine could become a global medical crisis by causing a spike in Covid-19 cases.
Let’s examine how Ukraine’s refugee crisis can trigger a Covid-19 surge in the region:
What does WHO say about Ukraine refugee crisis causing a surge in Covid-19 cases
In a recent briefing, Dr Mike Ryan, the executive director for WHO’s Health Emergencies Programme, said that there will be a rise in Covid-19 cases within Ukraine “without a doubt”.
He noted several potential reasons behind the spike, including lack of testing, no access to treatment, vaccinations stopped and an already low vaccination rate.
According to Our World in Data, Ukraine’s Covid-19 vaccination rate is at around 34 per cent.
In the face of the Russian invasion, it’s unlikely that people may follow Covid protocols.
According to a WHO situation report, cited by CNN, there have been a total of 791,021 new cases of Covid-19 and 8,012 new deaths in Ukraine and in surrounding countries between 3-9 March.
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View AllHowever, Ryan suggested that the world should avoid stereotypes around refugees and disease.
“But, again, let us be very careful with our rhetoric because this always arises, that in some way people fleeing the horrors of war are going to bring stuff with them. They’re not. They’re fleeing the horrors of war and the outpouring of generosity and acceptance by the surrounding countries has been inspiring, quite frankly, in the face of the horror that we’ve all witnessed,” he added.
Earlier, WHO Director Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus had said that the mass displacement of people will increase Covid transmission.
“Prior to the conflict, Ukraine experienced a recent surge of cases of Covid-19. Low rates of testing since the start of the conflict mean there is likely to be significant undetected transmission coupled with low vaccination coverage. This increases the risk of large numbers of people developing severe disease,” he said.
Covid transmission across borders
Even though experts agree the Ukrainian refugee crisis is likely to cause another surge in Covid-19 cases, it will be nearly impossible to collect correct data as surveillance systems fall apart in the neighbouring countries.
“It will all be lost in the noise,” said Dr. Eric Toner, senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security at the Bloomberg School of Public Health, as quoted by the USA Today.
“Assuming that the hospitals are able to even track admission data, there’s going to be a much bigger influx of people with war injuries than there would be COVID patients,” Toner added.
Dr Wafaa El-Sadr, professor of epidemiology and medicine at Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, said that since isolating, quarantines and testing will be nearly impossible, global health experts may have to look to neighboring countries to get a sense of COVID-19 transmission.
“You might have an idea of the impact in some of the host countries that still have systems in place to collect data,” she said. For the next few weeks “we’re going to be in the dark in terms of what’s really happening on the ground.”
Equitable access to vaccine is the way to go: WHO
Vaccinating incoming refugees and protecting health systems and humanitarian services in Ukraine are the only ways to mitigate a possible Covid-19 surge.
WHO has been working with countries of the European region to strengthen the health system capacity to accommodate large numbers of refugees and ensure access to essential health services. Among many other health needs, refugees require access to vaccines.
“Equitable access to vaccines is a right for all, no matter where they are,” explains Dr Siddhartha Datta, regional advisor for WHO/Europe’s Vaccine-preventable Diseases and Immunization Programme.
“Vaccination against diseases such as COVID-19, measles and poliomyelitis (polio) is especially important for the population groups most at risk of severe outcomes. For COVID-19, this is older adults and people with underlying health conditions, and for the routine vaccines, young children need to be up to date with all scheduled vaccine doses,” Datta said.
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With inputs from agencies_
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