 "Even if Ukraine loses Pokrovsk, Russia to take years to capture entire Donetsk, says US defence official")
Even as Russia has reached the outskirts of Pokrovsk, a US defence official has said that the fall of the city would not mean Ukraine’s doom.
Pokrovsk is a strategically important city in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk province. The city is a key logistical hub as well as an industrial hub. The fall of the city has previously been compared to the opening of floodgates, allowing Russia to advance further in any direction in Donetsk province.
Even though observers don’t paint a promising picture of Pokrovsk from Ukraine’s point of view, a senior US military officer has told The War Zone that even if Pokrovsk falls, it would take Russia “several years” to capture the entire Donetsk region.
The eastern Ukrainian region, Donbas, comprises two provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk. While Russia pushed to capture Ukrainian capital Kyiv in the initial weeks of the war and topple President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s government, it soon shifted focus and changed course to capture Donbas. Overall, Russia controls around a fifth of Ukraine and has annexed four provinces of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia even though it does not control these provinces entirely.
Throughout this year, Russia has made gains in the Donbas region , winning strategically important places like Avdiivka, Vuhledar, and Ukrainsk, and getting dangerously close to Pokrovsk. In an offensive earlier this year, Russia also made significant gains in Kharkiv province.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsRussia is making progress in Pokrovsk at great cost: US official
Even though Russia continues to make progress around Pokrovsk , it is coming at great cost, according to the senior US military official quoted above.
Last week, CNN reported that Russian forces were just 3 kilometers (1.9 miles) from Pokrovsk. Separately, Ukrainian military has confirmed that military positions around the city have been lost to Russia. Amid such reports, it is clear that the final battle for the control of the city is near.
The senior US military official told The War Zone that Russia is sustaining up to 1,200 casualties per day, which they said is not sustainable in the long run.
The official did not specify if the casualties included wounded or dead or both.
The official further said that there are “indications that they’re unable to regenerate” their troop strength.
Even though Russia is able to replace the casualties for now, the official said that cannot last forever.
“While they may be able to do that now, we certainly know that that’s one of the concerns that they would have on how long [they could] sustain that regeneration over time. It’s inevitable, quite frankly, that if they continue to sustain that level of casualty, eventually they have to look at another mobilisation, which obviously would be a large political decision,” said the official.
Russia to take 2 years to capture Donetsk even if Pokrovsk falls: US official
As for the Russian ability to control the Donetsk province, the official told The War Zone that even though Russia has made “significant progress”, it’s “very short” progress and as Ukrainians fall back to more defensible positions, it remains to be seen how the battle would play out.
In any case, the fall of Pokrovsk does not mean the fall of Donetsk, said the official.
“Just because they take Pokrovsk, doesn’t mean Donetsk falls. There’s a number of defensive lines after that. Even if they sustain their current rate of advance, it would take a couple of years for them to take Donetsk completely. That rate of advance could change one way or another, but just doing the math that’s about what it would take right now,” said the official.
The fall of Pokrovsk would nonetheless be damning for Ukraine as it would not just lose an industrial hub but also a logistical hub that serves as a gateway for further ingress into the region.
If Ukraine loses Pokrovsk, it would be very important to hold onto Dnipro and prevent further march of Russia, said the official.
 "Russian drones over Poland: Trump’s tepid reaction a wake-up call for Nato?")
 "As Russia pushes east, Ukraine faces mounting pressure to defend its heartland")
 "Why Mossad was not on board with Israel’s strike on Hamas in Qatar")
 "Turkey: Erdogan's police arrest opposition mayor Hasan Mutlu, dozens officials in corruption probe")
 "Russian drones over Poland: Trump’s tepid reaction a wake-up call for Nato?")
 "As Russia pushes east, Ukraine faces mounting pressure to defend its heartland")
 "Why Mossad was not on board with Israel’s strike on Hamas in Qatar")
 "Turkey: Erdogan's police arrest opposition mayor Hasan Mutlu, dozens officials in corruption probe")
