Ecuador presidential race heads to run-off as leftist challenger gains ground

Incumbent President Daniel Noboa clutched onto a razor-thin lead in violence-hit Ecuador’s election Sunday, after a stronger-than-expected challenge from a leftist rival who looked set to force a second-round run-off.

With about 90 percent of the ballots counted, Noboa had garnered 44.4 percent of the vote and rival Luisa Gonzalez was on 43.9 percent, official results showed.

Gonzalez, a 47-year-old single mother of two, told elated supporters in Quito that they had achieved a “great victory” by forcing what she called a “statistical tie”.

“We have won,” she claimed.

The telegenic lawyer-turned-lawmaker had trailed heavily in pre-election surveys. Some exit polls had even predicted that Noboa would garner the 50 percent of votes needed to avoid a head-to-head contest in April.

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But the election was seen by many as a referendum on the country’s stalled economy and on Noboa’s hardline security response in the face of record rates of murder, kidnapping and extortion.

In just a few years, cartels vying for control of Pacific ports and lucrative cocaine trading routes to Europe and Asia have transformed Ecuador from one of the safest countries in the world to one of the most dangerous.

During his 15 months in office Noboa has declared a state of emergency, deployed the army to the streets and gathered extraordinary executive powers to curb cartel violence.

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He deployed heavily armed soldiers to polling stations across the country on election day, and the land borders with Colombia and Peru were closed.

Both Noboa and Gonzalez were shadowed at public events by a phalanx of special forces, hoping to avoid a repeat of the 2023 election, when a leading candidate was assassinated.

“We’re only human. Of course, you feel afraid,” candidate Gonzalez told AFP from her childhood home on the eve of the vote.

But this time round the only election-related incidents were about 20 people cited for breaking a strict three-day alcohol ban.

More than ten million votes have been counted so far, but it could be some hours before the full tally is known.

Still, Noboa’s supporters were in a jubilant mood, lighting fireworks in Quito and Guayaquil, the country’s two largest cities.

“We came to support the president, we want him to support us and change the country,” said 52-year-old secretary Myriam Medrano on the streets of the capital.

Gonzalez’s political mentor – polarizing exiled ex-president Rafael Correa – was also bullish about the prospects of victory.

“We are going to PASS Noboa,” he said in a social media post.

‘A bigger challenge’

At 37, Noboa is one of the world’s youngest leaders.

He has bet his political fortunes on a slick social media campaign that underscores his youth and vigor and a hardline approach to tackling crime.

On the eve of the vote he posted a video of himself in a crisp white T-shirt and sneakers, strumming an acoustic guitar and crooning along in English – a striking contrast to his “mano dura,” or iron fist, security policies.

Human rights groups believe the aggressive use of the armed forces has led to abuses, including the murder of four boys whose charred bodies were recently found near an army base.

“Ecuador is in a very difficult moment, I think in the worst crisis since we returned to democracy,” said Leonardo Laso, a political analyst, referring to a period of deep crisis almost half a century ago.

‘Dark outlook’

The unrest has scared away tourists and investors alike, hitting an economy that likely entered a recession last year.

Noboa has been forced to turn to the International Monetary Fund to build a $4 billion fiscal war chest.

Easing fears that she may scrap that deal if elected, Gonzalez on Saturday told AFP that the IMF was “welcome” to help, so long as it does not insist on policies that hit working families.

Ecuador is also girding for the return of thousands of migrants who are expected to be deported by the administration of US President Donald Trump – meaning a drop in remittances, which total about $6 billion a year.

Gonzalez told AFP she wanted “appropriate” relations with Trump, while claiming Ecuador under Noboa “did not defend its citizens” against US mistreatment.

“I will always demand respect for our citizens. They cannot deport our brothers as if they were criminals, with chains on their legs and arms,” she said.

Voting is compulsory in Ecuador and between 13 and 14 million citizens are expected to have cast their ballot in Sunday’s poll.