Gaza peace deal: Trump reshapes West Asia geopolitical calculus with Israel-Hamas ceasefire

With the signing of what the White House dubbed the 'Trump Peace Agreement' at Egypt’s Sharm El-Sheikh, US President Donald Trump has sought to reshape the geopolitical calculus in West Asia. He has sought to usher in a new future in the region.

In Trump’s vision, business deals would replace wars and conflicts and Arab countries’ animosity with Israel would be replaced by Abraham Accords. But whether the region’s leaders would overcome mutual mistrust and complex rivalries to translate the vision into reality is under question.

But what is unquestionable is that the Trump-mediated deal —and two years of war— has changed the geopolitical calculus of West Asia.

After two years of war, Iran is at its weakest point since the Islamic Revolution of 1979: its military is battered, air defences are as good as dead, and its regional proxies from Hamas to Hezbollah have been reduced to a shadow of its former self. But that’s just one of the features of new West Asia.

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Trump reshapes West Asia beyond Israel & Gaza

Even though the war in Gaza has driven Trump’s deal, the ripples are being all over the region. For one, some fundamental equations have already changed.

Even though Israel had the upper hand in wars with Iran and Hamas, it is no longer as strong as one might think. While it had long been the fulcrum of US policy for West Asia, Trump has essentially put Israel and its leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, in check with his embrace of Qatar and other Arab and Muslim countries. He has made it clear that the United States does not have issues with other power centres rising in the region.

As a result, Qatar has emerged as the principal powerbroker in West Asia and a major Trump ally — next only to Israel. In fact, legally, Trump may have put Qatar at par with Israel or even above it. Last month, Trump signed an executive order to formally provide security guarantees to Qatar and said an external attack on Qatar will be considered an attack on the United States. In such a case, the United States will use diplomatic, economic, and military means for Qatar’s defence.

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Trump’s declaration at the Sharm El-Sheikh also entrenched Turkey —a non-Arab country— in the region. In fact, Turkey, which has had ties with Hamas for a long time and has as a result wielded influence over the group, played a key role along with Qatar and Egypt in pressuring Hamas to accept to the deal in Gaza.

Trump has also sought to use the Gaza deal as a launchpad for the expansion of Abraham Accords that were deemed dead with the war in Gaza. With the Assad dynasty in Syria ousted, a Syria-Israel normalisation does not appear to be unimaginable.

Trump makes friends beyond Israel

With his eccentric approach to diplomacy, Trump has gone far beyond Israel to make friends in West Asia. And, in doing so, he has also reshaped American diplomacy as the personal and official are barely indistinguishable with Trump.

With Trump, security guarantees have come after the royal family announced it would gift Trump a luxury aeroplane. In the United Arab Emirates, approval for chips reportedly followed business deals involving crypto companies with ties to Trump’s allies.

And one of Trump’s closest friends in the region, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is one of the staunchest critics of Israel, who had gone as far as to threaten to invade the country at one point.

With the Gaza deal, such unconventional foreign policy is expected to speed up and further reshaping of West Asia’s geopolitical calculus appears to be on the horizon.