 "Trump hosts Saudi prince at White House today: Israel, China elephants in the room")
US President Donald Trump appears set to declare his upcoming meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman a success, but he is unlikely to make much progress on issues that matter to him the most: the Saudi-Israel normalisation under Abraham Accords and addressing the kingdom’s rising ties with China.
Trump will on Tuesday host MBS —as the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia is widely known as— at the White House. He has already announced he would sell F-35 planes to the kingdom by overriding objections from the Department of Defense.
As with much of Trump’s engagement with foreign leaders, ranging from China’s Xi Jinping to Russia’s Vladimir Putin, he will end up giving much more than he will get in return.
In his talks with Trump, MBS is expected to prioritise a mutual defense agreement with the United States, advancing a potential deal to transfer American nuclear technology to Saudi Arabia, and finalising an agreement concerning artificial intelligence (AI), according to The New York Times.
Trump is set to focus on pushing MBS to normalise the relationship with Israel under Abraham Accords and curtail engagement with China. But he is bound to make no progress in those areas as MBS —the de facto Saudi ruler— has made it clear over the years that the Palestinian question needs to be addressed before any engagement with Israel and multi-alignment —instead of joining the American bandwagon— defines Saudi foreign policy.
Why MBS won’t budge on Israel & China
Irrespective of Trump’s praise for MBS or his family’s business deals with Saudi Arabia, MBS will not go ahead with the normalisation with Israel just yet.
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View AllThe reason is the Palestinian question. Even though MBS has absolute control over the kingdom, the Arab street can be unforgiving — the examples of Yemen, Syria, Libya, and Egypt are there. And MBS will not want to push the Arab street to the edge by compromising on the Palestinian question.
Consistently, Saudi Arabia has stated that an irrevocable pathway to Palestinian statehood has to be a condition for talks to normalise the relationship with Israel.
On China, MBS will not budge for another reason. He has turned Saudi foreign policy multi-aligned. He has engaged with every player in the world ranging from Trump to Xi to Syria’s Ahmed al-Sharaa. And he has invested too much in the relationship with China to abandon it at Trump’s behest.
Saudi Arabia has bought Chinese drones and the two sides have collaborated on military technology. Under the Saudi-Pakistan military pact, Saudi Arabia looks forward to receiving Chinese military technology, such as latest Chinese fighter planes.
Moreover, MBS has been working to prepare Saudi Arabia for a post-oil world. For that future, a partnership with China is key as China is the world’s leader in clean technology and renewable energy — particularly after Trump has essentially killed the support for clean and renewable sectors under ‘drill, baby, drill’ policy.
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