How stunning defeat against South Africa affects India's WTC campaign? Scenarios explained

India have always been a side that has been tough to beat in their own backyard, especially in the Test format. That aura of invincibility had peaked under the leadership of Virat Kohli, India’s most successful Test captain of all time.

That invincibility, however, appears to be under serious threat now with Team India losing four of their last six Tests on home soil. And when taking matches against SENA nations into account, the record stands at 0-4.

After a historic whitewash at the hands of New Zealand last year, India suffered a 30-run defeat against South Africa on Sunday after being set a tricky 124-run target in a low-scoring thriller at at Kolkata’s Eden Gardens.

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On a pitch with unpredictable bounce that has become the single biggest talking point over the last couple of days, none of the batters were able to reach 40 except Proteas skipper Temba Bavuma – who scored a brave 55 not out in South Africa’s second innings.

India, moreover, failed to even score 100 in their second innings, getting bundled out for 93 in their chase of 124.

The whitewash against New Zealand last year had effectively knocked India out of the race to the ICC World Test Championship final. What effect will the defeat against South Africa have on India’s current WTC campaign? Here’s more on that…

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How the 30-run loss against South Africa affects India’s WTC campaign

India find themselves on the fourth spot on the ICC World Test Championship 2025-27 points table after their defeat against the Proteas in Kolkata on Sunday. In the eight matches that they have played so far, India have won four, lost three and drawn one game.

Australia currently lead the standings with a points percentage of 100 thanks to their 3-0 whitewash of West Indies in the Caribbean, while South Africa and Sri Lanka are second and third respectively with a PCT of 66.67, having played three and two Tests respectively so far.

India currently have a PCT of 54.17; it must be noted, however, that they have played eight Tests so far in the 2025-27 cycle, more than any other team.

A look at the #WTC27 standings after South Africa's incredible win over India 👀

More on #INDvSA 📝👉 https://t.co/VlpKK9w671 pic.twitter.com/3sLiytUze2

— ICC (@ICC) November 16, 2025

They had begun their campaign with a 2-2 draw in England, which also marked the beginning of Shubman Gill’s tenure as India captain, with a brilliant spell by Mohammed Siraj on the final day of the fifth Test at the Oval helping India thwart the hosts and share the inaugural Anderson-Tendulkar Trophy.

That was followed by a 2-0 sweep of the West Indies at home last month, with India winning the first Test by an innings and 140 runs in Ahmedabad and the second in Delhi by seven wickets.

If India end up beating South Africa in the second Test in Guwahati that gets underway on Saturday, and share the series honours 1-1 as a result, they’re move up one spot to third with a PCT of 59.26. In case of a draw, which will result in a first Test series victory for the Proteas in India in 25 years, Gill and Co will remain at the fourth spot.

And if they lose, which will result in a second whitewash in their last three home Test assignments under head coach Gautam Gambhir, India will slip to the fifth spot.

Can India qualify for WTC 2027 final

India have a total of 10 Tests remaining after the Eden defeat, including the second Test against South Africa at Guwahati’s Barsapara Stadium. After facing off against the Proteas, India visit Sri Lanka and New Zealand for two Tests each before hosting Australia in a five-match series at home. That’s a total of 120 points on offer in their remaining fixtures of the 2025-27 WTC cycle.

India need at least eight wins from their last 10 fixtures if they are to finish with a PCT of 68.52 per cent – which is typically the number that results in a top-two finish.

The top-two teams in the inaugural WTC cycle from 2019-21 – India and New Zealand – had a PCT of 72.2 and 70 respectively. The corresponding numbers for the 2021-23 cycle were 66.7 and 58.8 for Australia and India respectively. As for 2023-25, the two finalists South Africa and Australia had finished with 69.44 and 67.54 respectively.

If India win 7 of their remaining 10 matches in this cycle, they’ll finish with a PCT of 62.96 – which could help them secure a top-two finish on the table, but will then be heavily dependent on other teams.

So while Gill and Co will certainly be targeting winning all 10, which will be quite an achievement, they will be hoping to win at least eight to boost their chances of qualifying for a third WTC final in four editions.