Does Raisi's death pave way for Khamenei's son to be Iran's next Ayatollah?

Even as the world joins Iran in mourning the sudden death of President Ebrahim Raisi, the most pertinent question is not who will be the next president but who will be the next Ayatollah or Supreme Leader of Iran. In all practicality, the post of the President of Iran only plays second fiddle to the Supreme Leader of Iran.

President, but not the most powerful in Iran

As the highest-ranking official elected by popular vote, the president heads the executive branch and is responsible for administering government policies, managing the cabinet and implementing laws. Additionally, the president plays a crucial role in shaping economic policies including the national budget and economic planning. In that sense, the role of the president is largely restricted to domestic affairs,

In matters like foreign policy, it is the Supreme Leader who calls the shots. However, the president’s authority is significantly limited by the Supreme Leader, who holds ultimate control over key state matters including the military, judiciary and media. The Supreme Leader’s decisions can override those of the president especially on issues of national security and religious significance. While the president of Iran has substantial administrative responsibilities, their power is circumscribed by the Supreme Leader and conservative institutions.

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Being president will at most be a stepping stone in becoming the next Ayatollah, a definite advantage.

Importance of Ayatollah

Known as the Velayat-e Faqih in Shia Islamic theology, the Supreme Leader or Ayatollah is the ultimate ruler in Iran and is responsible for making all major decisions concerning the state. They are high-ranking clerics in the Twelver Shiite tradition, which is the predominant branch of Islam in Iran. They are considered experts in Islamic jurisprudence (fiqh), theology and philosophy. Their religious authority is recognised through years of study in religious seminaries and contributions to Islamic scholarship. They have the authority to issue fatwas (legal opinions) on various matters of Islamic law guiding the religious practices of their followers.​

In Iran, the role of an Ayatollah transcends religious duties to encompass significant political influence. This is most evident in the position of the Supreme Leader, the highest authority in the Islamic Republic of Iran, which has been held by Ayatollahs since the 1979 Iranian Revolution even as the head of state and commander-in-chief. Only males are allowed to be considered for the job. Even politically, the most prominent Ayatollah in Iran is the Supreme Leader, who holds the highest authority in both religious and political matters.

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Vacuum after Raisi’s death

Iran’s constitution already has a provision on who will become the interim president of the country if the incumbent dies. The first vice president automatically assumes temporary leadership and together with the judiciary chief and the parliament speaker, a new presidential election within 50 days. Mohammad Mokhber, who holds the position of the First Vice President, will be the country’s temporary president for now.

The biggest question

The biggest query is of course who will be the next Supreme Leader as Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is already 85-years-old and has led the country for 30 years. Earlier, it was believed that President Ebrahim Raisi was in line to succeed him but his sudden death has also made a sudden change to the math. The consequences are not limited to Iran’s domestic affairs but is also likely cause an impact on Iran’s stature beyond its borders particularly in such a volatile time.

However, with Raisi gone the chances stakes have really grown high for and Khamenei’s son Mojtaba who was already considered as one of the top contender in some circles.

Born on 8 September, 1969 in Mashhad, Mojtaba Khamenei is a significant figure in Iranian politics and the second eldest son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Mojtaba’s upbringing and career have been closely tied to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Iran’s clerical establishment.

He joined the IRGC at a young age and participated in the Iran-Iraq War during the 1980s. After the war, he pursued religious studies in Qom, a major centre for Shiite scholarship under the guidance of prominent conservative clerics. This background has cemented his position within the hardline faction of Iran’s political elite​.

Mojtaba Khamenei has long been rumoured to be a potential successor to his father as Supreme Leader. These speculations have gained traction due to the diminishing prospects of other potential successors. Mojtaba’s influence within the Office of the Supreme Leader and his involvement in key political decisions highlights his powerful position within the Iranian regime. However, there are doubts how his insular upbringing and hardline affiliations will attract him more towards the conservative and repressive policies of his father rather than pursuing a modern and flexible path.

According to Financial Times, Mojtaba, aged 54, isn’t seen as the beloved figure of the masses. Since the unrest in 2009, sparked by the controversial re-election of hardliner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as president, Mojtaba has faced protests. Demonstrators allege that the election was rigged against reformist candidate Mir-Hossein Moussavi in favour of setting the stage for Mojtaba’s succession to his father’s position.

For now, the future of Iran looks more in conservative hands than in the those who shun orthodoxy!