Despite an ICC arrest warrant, how Putin travelled to Kazakhstan

Russia President Vladimir Putin has an arrest warrant pending against his name after an International Criminal Court (ICC) issued it in March 2023 for war crimes. He has been charged with abduction and forced recruitment of children in armed forces from Ukraine after Russia invaded the country in February 2022.

Yet, he has travelled to Kazakhstan this week to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), an international group designed to counter the dominance of Western alliances in global affairs. This followed his visits to North Korea and Vietnam.

These visits underscore his defiance of Western sanctions and international condemnation and are particularly significant given the looming shadow of the arrest warrant for alleged war crimes in Ukraine.

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But Putin has been wise in choosing his foreign trips

The ICC arrest warrant, issued for Putin’s alleged responsibility in the abduction of children from Ukraine, imposes substantial travel restrictions. With 123 countries as ICC members, the risk of arrest looms large for Putin if he ventures into these jurisdictions.

However, Kazakhstan is not a party to the Rome Statute, the treaty establishing the ICC, and thus bears no legal obligation to detain him. This loophole has allowed Putin to navigate his international travels carefully, selecting destinations where the threat of arrest is minimal.

India is also not a signatory to the ICC but Putin had avoided visiting India last year for the G-20 Summit amid speculation what New Delhi would do given its strong ties with the West as democratic blocs.

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Notwithstanding legal challenges, it remains uncertain whether Putin or other senior Russian officials will ever face justice under international law. The Kremlin has staunchly denied any allegations of war crimes by its troops in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the ICC continues to investigate other potential atrocities, while Ukraine has swiftly put captured Russian soldiers on trial for war crimes, resulting in numerous convictions.

A message from Astana: Putin-Xi friendship

The visit to Kazakhstan marked the second meeting between Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping in as many months, highlighting the strengthening ties between Moscow and Beijing. Both leaders have faced escalating tensions with the West, and their meeting in Kazakhstan served to affirm their strategic partnership.

The two leaders have met more than 40 times for bilateral meetings in one another’s countries and on the sidelines of multi-lateral forums. This partnership is critical for Russia, which has leaned heavily on China as a primary market for its oil and gas, and as a key supplier of high-tech imports necessary to sustain its military operations.

Vying for influence at the SCO Summit: The West is over-rated

Putin’s presence at the summit was meticulously documented by Russian state television, with footage of his multiple bilateral meetings with other world leaders. These carefully curated images were aimed at reinforcing the narrative that Russia remains an influential player on the global stage, despite its growing isolation due to Western sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

During a meeting with Xi Jinping, Putin lauded the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) as a cornerstone of a fair, multipolar world order. He emphasised that the current relationship between Russia and China is at its historic zenith.

For Xi, the summit was an opportunity to project China’s influence, particularly in Central Asia and the Global South, promoting Beijing as a viable alternative to the US and its allies. Xi’s call for “bridges of communication” among nations underscored his vision of expanding China’s diplomatic footprint.

Winning regional powers back

The summit also saw interactions between Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Although anticipated visits by Putin to Turkey have not materialised, Erdogan has maintained a delicate balance in his relations with both Russia and Ukraine. Since the onset of the conflict, Erdogan has frequently positioned himself as a mediator, navigating the complex geopolitical landscape with caution.

For Kazakhstan and other Central Asian nations, hosting the summit was an opportunity to bolster their cooperation with larger neighbours like Russia and China. Kazakhstan, in particular, has adeptly balanced its relations, engaging with both Russia and China while also forging ties with the West. This year alone, it has hosted US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and British Foreign Secretary David Cameron, demonstrating its multifaceted foreign policy approach.

Putin’s trip to Kazakhstan, against the backdrop of an ICC arrest warrant, is a testament to his resolve to maintain Russia’s global presence and to forge fresh alliances that can withstand Western opposition. This Kazakhstan was not just about attending a summit but also about sending a clear message to the world that Russia, under his leadership, remains undeterred and strategically engaged on the international stage.