China could occupy Taiwan without firing a shot with 'quarantine' strategy, warns think tank report

China could occupy Taiwan without firing a single shot with its ‘quarantine’ strategy, according to a top think tank’s report.

Beijing considers Taiwan to be a breakaway province and is committed to its reunification with the mainland China. It has not ruled out the use of force for the reunification. In recent years, Beijing’s military provocations have increased around Taiwan as exercises simulating invasion and takeover of Taiwan have become more and more aggressive.

Just this morning, Taiwan’s Defence Ministry said that 41 Chinese aircraft and seven naval vessels were spotted around Taiwan. Of those, 32 aircraft had entered the air defence identification zone (ADIZ) of the self-ruled island.

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Amid such tensions, the US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has published a report that says that China may deploy quarantine strategy to take Taiwan without an invasion. The report is based on in-depth research, tabletop exercises, private consultations, and expert surveys, according to the CSIS.

What’s the quarantine strategy?

The quarantine strategy includes deploying a blockade-like net around Taiwan to make it surrender to Beijing’s terms.

While a blockade would involve the regular miliary, the quarantine strategy would include law-enforcement elements of Beijing’s security apparatus.

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The Beijing’s quarantine strategy would include an operation to control maritime or air traffic around Taiwan, according to CSIS.

Instead of completely sealing off Taiwan, the quarantine’s objective would be to assert Beijing’s control over Taiwan by setting the terms for traffic in and out of the island, as per the report. It would mean that China would decide how, when, and on what terms countries and companies could access Taiwan and how, when, and on what terms Taiwan would have access to the outside world.

The CNN reported that the China Coast Guard, Chinese maritime militia, and various police and maritime safety agencies could be part of such an operation.

Quarantine could put Taiwan’s partners in tough spot

As the quarantine strategy would be a law-enforcement operation in the seas, if US Navy or other partners intervene on Taiwan’s behalf, they would be considered the aggressors and Beijing would then put the onus of any escalation on them.

Moreover, the objective of the quarantine is to dictate the terms of Taiwan’s engagement with the outside world and the outside world’s engagement with China. The threat of having ships seized by China could deter maritime trade with Taiwan and hit the country’s economy.

For example, if the quarantine targets just the port of Kaohsiung, up to 57 per cent of the country’s trade could be affected, according to CNN.

Such pressure on the economy, and possible imposition of requirements like the customs checks of ships by Chinese inspectors before entering Taiwan, could make Taiwan as well as the wider world bow to China’s pressure, suggests the report.