China, Russia watch on as Trump weighs Iran strike to aid Israel

As US President Donald Trump appears to be preparing to join Israel in the war on Iran, China and Russia are anxiously following the developments as their principal ally in the West Asia stands battered — and likely on the verge of defeat.

Over the past many years, China has emerged as a leader of an anti-Western bloc that also comprised Russia, Iran, and North Korea. A defeat of Iran, or worse a regime change, would be catastrophic blow to the bloc and China and Russia’s ability to project power in West Asia.

Both China and Russia have offered to mediate between Israel and Iran , but the offer has found no taker in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel.

The anxious wait for China and Russia appears set to last for a while as the war is nowhere near its conclusion. Even though Israel has decapitated Iranian military, assassinated the military and scientific brass, and battered its armaments, it has barely damaged the regime’s nuclear programme — the main target of the war.

Israel does not have the means to neutralise Iranian underground nuclear sites like Fordow. For that, Israel needs American ‘bunker buster’ munitions and specialised planes to launch them. While Trump has positioned aircraft and warships in the region , he has maintained that Iran wants to make a deal and it appears that he is giving the regime one last chance at negotiations.

Russia loses yet another ally

After the ouster of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, Russia appears set to lose another ally in the region in Iran.

Even if Iran survives the war, it has already been reduced to a shadow of its former self by the Israeli bombardment.

ALSO READ: As Netanyahu dares Khamenei, here’s timeline of Israel-Iran conflict

Previously, Russia projected power along the southern flank of Nato through ports and airbases in Syria. After losing those footholds, the alliance with Iran remained the main way for Russia to project power in the region. As Iran’s defeat appears to be just a matter of time, Russia appears set to lose that as well.

China stares at energy crisis

As the largest buyer of Iranian oil, the disruption in supplies from the war could affect the country.

Moreover, as disruption spreads, or worse if the conflict spreads in the region, China’s energy imports from other countries, such as the Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE), could also be affected.

The problem may not be unique to China as around at least a fifth of world’s all petroleum supplies transit through the region.

“It’s an energy security risk. For a country already suffering under the strain of an economic downturn and a trade war [with the US], it’s not an ideal scenario,” Tuvia Gering, a China and Middle East specialist at Israel’s Institute of National Security Studies, told The Daily Telegraph.

Neither Russia nor China can help Iran

Even as China and Russia would want Iran to survive the war, there is little they can do support their ally.

While Russia is bogged down in its own war against Ukraine, China would not risk a rupture with the United States with any overt military support to Iran at a time when the two sides are trying to mend ties.

Moreover, there is little China can do as it is too far to provide arms and any air bridge would risk getting bogged into a conflict with Israel and the United States.

As for Russia, the regime is reliant on North Korea and China to sustain its war on Ukraine and on China to sustain its economy . As the country is dependent on North Korea for soldiers and artillery and on Russia for everything from heavy machinery and raw material to make weapons to consumer goods for the general public, it is not in any shape to support Iran in the war with the Israel-US combine.

“The collapse of the current regime would be a significant blow and would generate a lot of instability in the Middle East, ultimately undermining Chinese economic and energy interests,” Andrea Ghiselli, a scholar of China’s relations in West Asia and North Africa, told The Telegraph.

ALSO READ: Inside Netanyahu’s campaign to destroy Iran’s bunker nuclear sites

Despite such limitations, there has been some speculation about some Chinese help to Iran.

The Telegraph has reported that multiple aircraft originating from China appear to have arrived in Iran deceptively in recent days.

While the contents or occupants of the aircraft were not known, the newspaper reported that the planes were Boeing 747 freighters that are commonly used to transport military equipment and weapons and are chartered to fly government-owned cargo.

While “the likelihood remains low” of China overtly helping Iran militarily, the possibility “should not be dismissed and must be closely monitored”, Tuvia told the newspaper.

China, Russia to face problems even if Iran survives

Even if Iran somehow survives the war, China and Russia would still have problems.

Observers have said that if Iran survives the war, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei would have no option other than developing a nuclear weapon to restore lost deterrence. Russia and China do not want that.

Firstly, Russia and China do not want the proliferation of nuclear weapons. Secondly, Russia and China do not Iran to outgrow its junior position in the bloc. If it would acquire nuclear weapons, the hold of China and Russia over Iran would weaken.