China holds South Asia meet minus India, Nepal foreign secretary to address keynote

Continuing its South Asia outreach, which is particularly aimed at circling India with its allies, China is currently holding the 5th China-South Asia Cooperation Forum (CSACF) meeting in Kunming, Yunnan. The six-day meet began on Tuesday (July 23) and will conclude on July 28. Nepal, which has just seen a regime change, with pro-China KP Sharma Oli becoming the prime minister last week, has sent its foreign secretary, Sewa Lamsal, to deliver a keynote address at the forum on Wednesday.

The 5th CSACF marks a significant diplomatic event amid evolving regional dynamics. Lamsal’s keynote address at the forum underscores Nepal’s strategic role in fostering regional cooperation and navigating complex geopolitical landscapes.

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The CSACF, coinciding with the eighth China-South Asia Expo, serves as a platform aimed at enhancing economic ties and fostering collaboration among South Asian countries and China.

China’s minus-India outreach in South Asia

This forum excludes India, aligning with China’s broader strategic initiatives such as the ‘One Belt, One Road’ (OBOR) and the establishment of economic corridors that bypass Indian territory.  

The exclusion of India from such forums reflects China’s efforts to assert its influence in South Asia independently of India’s regional leadership, marking a strategic shift in regional dynamics.

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China’s strategic exclusion of India from key regional dialogues like the CSACF and its proactive engagement in the Indian Ocean Region raise questions about Beijing’s intentions and its impact on regional dynamics.  

India, maintaining its ‘Neighbourhood First Policy,’ faces the challenge of balancing its strategic interests with China’s expanding influence in South Asia and the Indian Ocean Region.

China versus India: Contrasting approaches in South Asia

Over the past decade, trade between China and South Asian nations has seen substantial growth, reaching USD 197.4 billion in 2023 with an impressive annual growth rate of 8.3 percent. This economic partnership forms a cornerstone of China’s regional strategy, complementing initiatives like the China-Indian Ocean Region Forum, which focuses on infrastructure investments and economic projects across the Indian Ocean.

In contrast to India’s approach of providing grants, capacity building, and cultural diplomacy, China’s engagement in the region often involves substantial loans and infrastructure development. Critics argue that these loans may lead to debt dependency among recipient countries, citing examples like the Hambantota port in Sri Lanka, which was handed over to China on a long-term lease due to financial difficulties faced by the Sri Lankan government.

What about Nepal’s role

Lamsal’s participation in the CSACF reflects its own compulsions of domestic politics. Depending on who is in power in Nepal, its foreign policy takes a pro-China or pro-India diplomacy. Of late, it has been aiming to extract maximum economic benefits from its relationships with China or India.

While the CSACF highlights China’s strategic ambitions in South Asia, which include its deepening penetration in Nepal through increased connectivity and infrastructure projects. China presents its investments in the region as its ‘peaceful development’ and ‘win-win’ cooperation models.  

However, geopolitical observers see these measures largely aimed at curbing India’s traditional influence in the region. This explains China’s growing influence in the maritime domain — from Pakistan, Djibouti and the Maldives to Bangladesh and Nepal in the Indian Ocean Region.  

There is also a geopolitical competition that China eyes with India in South Asia and the Indian Ocean Region. China views the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) among the United States, Japan, and Australia as a challenge to its monopolistic designs in the Indo-Pacific.  

Against this backdrop, a change of regime in Nepal and its foreign secretary’s keynote at the CSACF assumes geostrategic significance. The outcomes may contribute to shaping future regional interactions and influence in South Asia and possibly beyond.