China expanding nuclear arsenal at ‘most rapid’ pace, may junk no-first-use policy, says US

China has been expanding its nuclear arsenal at the “most rapid” pace ever, according to the latest US intelligence assessment.

In a report released this week, the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) said that China has carrying out “most rapid expansion and ambitious modernisation of its nuclear forces in history”.

The DIA has doubled its estimate of China’s nuclear arsenal. In 2020, the DIA said that China had around 200 nuclear weapons which were expected to double by 2030, but it said in its latest report that China now has more than 500 nuclear weapons and is on track to have more than 1,000 weapons by 2030.

Most of China’s nuclear weapons have range to reach the continental United States, said the DIA in the report titled ‘Nuclear Challenges: The Growing Capabilities of Strategic Competitors and Regional Rival’.

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Among the most concerning findings, the DIA said that China may also junk its no-first-use (NFU) policy and may be open to a ’limited’ nuclear war.

The intelligence assessment comes at a time when China has emerged as an all-round belligerent. To realise its hegemonic designs in the Indo-Pacific region, China has been militarising the region and carrying out near-daily military aggression. In confrontation with the West, China has ramped up espionage and subversive activities, including cyberattacks, and is the driving force behind the Russia’s war on Ukraine and aggression against Europe.

China may junk no-first-use policy, says US assessment

Even though China formally has a no-first-use (NFU) policy for nuclear weapons, it may not actually believe in it, according to the DIA assessment.

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The DIA said that China may launch a nuclear attack if it believes that a non-nuclear strike may compromise its nuclear forces’ capabilities.

Moreover, the DIA said that China may also launch nuclear weapons in case the communist regime stares at defeat in Taiwan.

China considers the self-ruling island to be a breakaway province and is committed to its reunification with the mainland — even with the use of force. Chinese President-for-Life Xi Jinping has declared 2027 as the year by when the Chinese military should be ready to invade and subjugate Taiwan. As China has ramped up military drills simulating invasion of Taiwan in recent years, fears have mounted regarding the Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

“Beijing probably would also consider using its nuclear force if a conventional military defeat in Taiwan gravely threatened the regime’s survival,” said the DIA.

China appears open to ’limited’ nuclear war — which will destroy planet

China is also said to be seeking low-yield nuclear weapons, dubbed as ’tactical’ nuclear weapons, according to DIA.

While larger ‘strategic’ nuclear weapons refer to those that can obliterate entire cities and nations, ’tactical’ weapons are those that purportedly have limited impact are used for a specific theatre of battle. However, experts have said that there is nothing like a ’tactical’ nuclear weapon as any nuclear strike would lead to nuclear fallout so terrible that effects will be widespread. Moreover, they say that even a so-called tactical weapon will surely invite a retaliation which would wrap the world in an exchange of nuclear weapon that will most likely annihilate the human race.

For these reasons, even the usage of such ’tactical weapons’ has long been rejected by countries that possess such weapons, but the Chinese regime may no longer subscribe to that view. The DIA noted that there are indications that China is reconsidering the long-held consensus that even a limited nuclear conflict is uncontrollable and will lead to an annihilating spiral.

“Chinese military writings have noted that the introduction of new precise small-yield nuclear weapons could allow for the controlled use of theatre-range nuclear weapons for warning and deterrence.136 Such discussions provide PLA’s doctrinal basis for limited nuclear employment on the battlefield, suggesting Chinese nuclear thinkers could be reconsidering their long-standing view that nuclear war is uncontrollable,” said the DIA.