China courts Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami: A geopolitical gamble India can't ignore

Recent developments in Bangladesh, particularly the interactions between the Chinese Ambassador to Dhaka, Yao Wen and Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh (JIB), signal a shift in regional dynamics that India cannot afford to ignore. The ambassador’s praise for JIB on Monday as a “well-organised political party” and his visit to their central office in Moghbazar, Dhaka, marks the first such diplomatic engagement since the initiation of war crimes trials in Bangladesh in 2010. This engagement comes at a time when the political landscape in Bangladesh is undergoing significant changes with Sheikh Hasina’s government having recently fallen and an interim government led by Muhammad Yunus taking charge.

In an interview with PTI, Shafiqur Rahman, the chief of Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami, expressed a desire for stable ties with India but was clear that New Delhi should refrain from interfering in Bangladesh’s internal affairs. Rahman emphasised that while Jamaat supports close relations between New Delhi and Dhaka, Bangladesh should also work to maintain strong and balanced relationships with countries like the US, China and Pakistan, leaving behind the “baggage of the past.”

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Historical context and Jamaat-e-Islami’s controversial role

Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh, a party with deep roots in the broader Jamaat-e-Islami movement founded in 1941 in British India, has been a controversial entity in Bangladesh’s history. Its opposition to Bangladesh’s independence in 1971 and collaboration with the Pakistani military during the Liberation War have left an indelible stain on its reputation. The party’s involvement in atrocities during the war, carried out by its paramilitary wings like Al-Badr and Razakars, led to the conviction and execution of several leaders during the war crimes trials initiated by the Bangladeshi government in the 2000s.

Despite these convictions and its tarnished image, Jamaat-e-Islami has managed to maintain its political influence, particularly through its alliances with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and its student wing, Islami Chhatra Shibir. The party’s ability to re-enter the political arena after being banned post-independence and its ongoing participation in coalition governments highlight its resilience and adaptability.

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China’s strategic interests in Bangladesh

China’s increasing engagement with Bangladesh, particularly with the interim government and political parties like Jamaat-e-Islami, reflects Beijing’s broader strategic interests in South Asia. Historically, China has maintained a close relationship with Hasina’s Awami League government, particularly after the disputed elections from 2014 to 2018. However, with the change in government, China’s outreach to Jamaat-e-Islami and its support for the interim government signals an attempt to maintain and possibly expand its influence in Bangladesh, regardless of the political party in power.

For India, this development is concerning. Bangladesh’s geopolitical significance, given its proximity to India and its role in South Asian politics, makes it a critical area of interest for New Delhi. China’s attempts to strengthen ties with a party like Jamaat-e-Islami, which has historically been sceptical of India’s influence, could undermine India’s efforts to maintain a stable and friendly relationship with its eastern neighbour.

Jamaat-e-Islami’s ideological stance and potential risks

Jamaat-e-Islami’s ideological stance, advocating for an Islamic state governed by Sharia law and its past opposition to India’s role in Bangladesh’s liberation make its growing ties with China a matter of concern for India. While the party has not explicitly maintained an anti-India stance in recent years, its nationalist rhetoric and occasional criticisms of India’s influence in the region could complicate bilateral relations between Bangladesh and India if Jamaat-e-Islami were to gain more political power with China’s support.

Moreover, Jamaat-e-Islami has faced allegations of fostering extremist ideologies and supporting militant activities, raising concerns about the potential for radicalisation and instability in the region. China’s endorsement of Jamaat-e-Islami as a “well-organised” political party and its willingness to engage with them on matters of mutual interest including education, culture and development, could embolden the party and its supporters leading to increased tensions in Bangladesh and, by extension, in the broader South Asian region.

Implications for India’s regional security and influence

India’s regional security and influence could be significantly impacted if China continues to deepen its ties with Jamaat-e-Islami. The party’s potential rise to power, backed by Chinese support, could lead to a government in Bangladesh that is less inclined to cooperate with India on issues of mutual concern such as counterterrorism, border security and regional stability.

Furthermore, China’s strategic investments in Bangladesh, particularly in infrastructure and development projects, could give Beijing greater leverage in the country, reducing India’s influence and potentially creating a regional power imbalance that favours China.

Moreover, Bangladesh may reconsider the memoranda of understanding signed with India in June if they do not align with its national interests, said the country’s Foreign Affairs Adviser, Touhid Hossain, on 1 September, as reported by The Daily Star. During former prime minister Hasina’s visit to India on June 22, the two nations signed ten memoranda, including seven new agreements and the renewal of three existing ones.

A cautious approach

India must remain vigilant in monitoring the evolving dynamics between China and Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh. The recent meeting between Chinese Ambassador Yao and Jamaat’s leadership is not just a diplomatic courtesy but a potential indicator of China’s long-term strategy in the region. India’s response should be measured but assertive ensuring that its interests in Bangladesh are protected while also seeking to counterbalance China’s growing influence in South Asia. The stakes are high and the implications of these developments could shape the future of regional geopolitics for years to come.