Caribbean chessboard: Modi, Guyana and the China factor

As Prime Minister Narendra Modi landed in Georgetown, Guyana for a historic visit, India faces a key challenge in the Caribbean: China. China’s growing presence in Guyana has become a major concern for India in the region. Beijing has been strengthening its military, economic, and infrastructure ties with Guyana, a country rich in oil and natural resources.

Once considered a minor player in global politics, Guyana now holds significant importance due to its vast oil reserves and strategic location. However, as China deepens its influence, India finds itself in a tougher race to build partnerships in the region. This competition has far-reaching effects on regional stability and the balance of power.

China’s strategic inroads in Guyana

Since 2017, China has greatly expanded its presence in Guyana, reflecting its growing ambitions in the Caribbean and Latin America. Through trade deals, infrastructure projects and military aid, China has become a key player in the region while supporting Guyana’s development.

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Chinese companies have led major projects like the Arthur Chung Conference Centre, the Cheddi Jagan International Airport expansion and the East Bank Demerara Highway. China’s Belt and Road Initiative has been central to this partnership. Guyana has actively participated in efforts to boost infrastructure, energy security and regional connectivity. Investments in renewable energy, hydropower and telecommunications have made China Guyana’s largest trading partner in the Caribbean, deepening its influence. China has also strengthened its military ties with Guyana providing equipment like Y-12 patrol aircraft and training programmes for the Guyanese Defence Force.

Economic and strategic importance of Guyana for India

For India, China’s growing influence in Guyana presents both challenges and opportunities. Guyana’s rapid economic rise fuelled by its vast oil reserves makes it a valuable partner for India especially in the energy sector. With Guyana set to become one of the world’s top oil producers by the end of the decade, India is eager to secure its share in this booming industry. Companies like Oil and Natural Gas Corporation are already exploring opportunities in Guyana’s oil and gas fields.

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Beyond energy, Guyana’s strategic location offers India a chance to strengthen its presence in the Caribbean—a region traditionally dominated by the US and Western powers. As Guyana invests in large-scale infrastructure projects, India can contribute through its expertise in technology, renewable energy and defence cooperation. In the first half of this month, Brigadier Omar Khan, Chief of Defence Staff of the Guyana Defence Force was on a five-day tour to India to enhance defence cooperation between the two countries. Earlier this year, India delivered two Dornier-228 aircraft to Guyana.

However, the real issue for India is to counterbalance China’s growing footprint in the region. China’s strong presence in critical areas like infrastructure and energy poses a challenge. Chinese firms are already deeply involved in projects ranging from highways to deep-water ports. For India, the task is not only to compete with China economically but also to ensure its partnership with Guyana stands out amid China’s extensive influence.

The US concerns

China’s growing influence in Guyana is also a strategic concern for the United States, which considers the Caribbean a key part of its sphere of influence. Washington is increasingly worried about China’s military presence and the possibility of Beijing establishing a strong foothold in South America. For the US, the Caribbean plays a crucial role in its security and economic interests including efforts to combat drug trafficking and safeguard vital trade routes.

In response, the US has been working to strengthen its defence and trade relations with Guyana. American officials have pushed for greater military cooperation and offered to enhance Guyana’s defence capabilities to counter China’s influence. However, Guyana has been cautious, aiming to maintain an independent foreign policy and avoid siding too closely with any one power.

Path forward for India

For India, addressing China’s growing influence in Guyana is challenging and New Delhi is aware of it. Prime Minister Modi’s visit is one such key move to counter it.