Canadians vote amid Trump's annexation threats and historic Liberal comeback hopes

In order to elect a new leader amid heightened tensions with the US, Canadians across six time zones voted Monday as Donald Trump reignited controversy by threatening trade penalties unless Canada agreed to become the “51st state.”

The Liberals, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, were initially trailing Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. However, Trump’s aggressive election-day remarks triggered a late shift in momentum, boosting Liberal prospects in final polls.

“No more artificially drawn line from many years ago,” he said.

Trump’s prominence in the race has hurt Poilievre’s chances of becoming prime minister and the Tory leader hit back before he voted on Monday.

“President Trump, stay out of our election,” he posted on X. “Canada will always be proud, sovereign and independent and we will NEVER be the 51st state.”

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Carney also chided the president, saying on X: “This is Canada and we decide what happens here.”

The 60-year-old has never held elected office and only replaced Justin Trudeau as prime minister last month.

He had a lucrative career as an investment banker before serving as the central bank governor in both Canada and Britain.

Carney has argued his global financial experience has prepared him to guide Canada’s response to Trump.

“We don’t need chaos, we need calm. We don’t need anger, we need an adult,” Carney said in the campaign’s closing days.

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Poilievre, a 45-year-old career politician, has tried to keep the focus on domestic concerns that made Trudeau deeply unpopular toward the end of his decade in power.

The Tory leader argued Carney would continue “the lost Liberal decade” and that only the Conservatives will act against soaring costs, housing shortages and other non-Trump issues that Canadians rank as priorities.

‘Settle down’

Final polls indicate a tight race but put Carney as the favorite.

With warm spring weather, Canadians lined up outside schools, community centers and other venues in Montreal, Ottawa and Toronto to vote.

Montreal resident Hamza Fahri, who plans to vote after work, described the election as “unique.”

“I wanted to vote for change in Canada. I wanted the Liberals to go, but in the end, I’ll vote for Carney because he is a strong, serious man and that’s what the country needs to face Trump,” the 28-year-old engineer told AFP.

But Kelsey Leschasin, who lives in the Conservative-leaning central province of Saskatchewan, said her priority was “change.”

“I don’t agree with the Liberal government and how they’re running our country,” she told AFP in Montreal, where she was visiting for a conference.

In Ottawa, Caroline Jose voiced concern that Trump’s threats had put voters into “kind of a panic,” and that critical issues like income inequality had not been discussed.

“I wish we could have things settle down and (people) could vote with their mind and not with their gut,” the 46-year-old said.

Historic turnaround?

If the Liberals win, it would mark one of the most dramatic turnarounds in Canadian political history.

On January 6, the day Trudeau announced he would resign, the Conservatives led the Liberals by more than 20 points in most polls.

But Carney replacing Trudeau, combined with nationwide unease about Trump, transformed the race.

Public broadcaster CBC’s poll aggregator final update late Sunday put the Liberals’ national support at 42.8 percent, with the Conservatives at 39.2 percent.

The performance of two smaller parties – the left-wing New Democratic Party and the separatist Bloc Quebecois – could be decisive as strong showings by both parties in past votes have curbed Liberal seat tallies.

Nearly 29 million of Canada’s 41 million people are eligible to vote in the massive G7 country. A record 7.3 million people cast advanced ballots.

Canadians will elect 343 members of parliament, meaning 172 seats are needed for a majority. The Liberals won a majority in 2015 but have governed with a minority since 2019.