Canada's PM Mark Carney tops polls 4 weeks before voting; Will he restore Liberal Party's old glory?

Four weeks before Canadians vote in a general election where threats by US President Donald Trump have taken center stage, Mark Carney has led a Liberal resurgence to take the lead in polls over his main rival, Conservative Pierre Poilievre.

Since coming to office in January, the US leader has threatened the Canadian economy with high tariffs and repeatedly called for the country to surrender its sovereignty and become a part of the United States.

Experts agree that the main question facing Canadians when they cast their ballot on April 28 will be who – current Prime Minister Carney or Poilievre – can push back against Trump.

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“The economy is the biggest issue for me in this election, including the whole free trade thing with the United States,” Ottawa voter Carol Salemi told AFP.

“We need some sort of negotiation (with the US) and we need a strong leader to do that,” she said.

Danielle Varga, 22, echoed that viewpoint, saying Canada needs “someone that’s strong against America. It feels like everyone’s on that same page, which is good.”

At the moment, former central banker and political novice Carney, who took over from Justin Trudeau as PM in mid-March, appears to fit the bill.

The 60-year-old has taken the country by storm, completely reversing the fortunes of the Liberals who under a beleaguered Trudeau were headed for an electoral wipeout.

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He is now leading in the polls and, observers say, has a good chance of forming a majority government.

“This is the most important election of our lifetime,” Carney told campaign volunteers in Ottawa on Saturday. “It’s critical in redefining our relationship with the United States (and) redefining our economy on our own terms.”

Carney interrupted his campaign this week after Trump announced plans to impose 25 percent tariffs on car imports, coming on the heels of levies on steel and aluminum.

Trump said he had an “extremely productive” first call with Carney on Friday, adding that the two leaders “agree on many things.”

That was a stark change in tone from a US president whose dealings with Trudeau had been frosty, and it was immediately picked up on north of the border.

‘Exceptional time for Canada’

Conservative leader Poilievre launched his campaign with an emphasis on tax cuts, affordable housing and development of Canada’s resource riches.

The 45-year-old career politician has sought to dispel comparisons with Trump – both right-wing populists – that have dimmed his appeal in Canada.

“President Trump has said he wants the Liberals back in power. We know why, because they will keep Canada weak and keep our investment flowing out of this country, to the US,” he said at a campaign stop in Toronto on Sunday.

Other parties such as Jagmeet Singh’s leftist New Democratic Party and the separatist Bloc Quebecois led by Yves-Francois Blanchet have struggled to be heard, as voters focus on the two frontrunners in this time of crisis.

“This is truly an exceptional time for Canada,” said Ottawa University politics professor Genevieve Tellier, adding: “Canada is looking for a savior.”

In a sign of the tensions, Carney declared on Thursday after Trump’s latest tariffs announcement that the era of deep economic, security and military ties between Canada and the United States “is over.”

Tellier said Carney’s “firm tone” and explanation that “relations with the United States would never be the same again” seem to be resonating with voters.

Those remarks have “captured the current mood in Canada,” she said.

Voters are turning to Carney because “they want security and a reassuring figure in times of crisis,” added Daniel Beland of McGill University in Montreal.

In a country of 41 million people, 343 seats are at stake in this year’s snap election. The party that wins a majority will form the next government, and its leader will become prime minister.

If no party gains a clear majority, the party with the most seats will be invited to attempt to form a coalition government with the help of smaller parties.