Canada votes on April 28 but Trump may already have defeated the front-runner Poilievre

As Canadians get ready to vote on April 28, what once seemed like a clear election result has suddenly changed. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, who had a big lead just a few weeks ago, is now behind. What caused this big change?

A surprising and powerful reason: Donald Trump. The American president’s aggressive words about Canada have shaken up the election and changed what it’s really about. Because of this, Trump may have helped the very party he once seemed to defeat—Canada’s Liberal government.

Poilievre’s early commanding lead

Earlier, the Conservatives had a strong lead, with public opinion polls showing Poilievre ahead of the Liberals by as much as 25 percentage points, according to a report in The New York Times. Poilievre, who has been in Parliament for many years and is known for his tough political style, was able to turn people’s anger about inflation, crime and too much government control into a powerful message against the Liberals.

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Poilievre’s populist approach—including his support for anti-vaccine trucker protests, criticism of “wokeism” and attacks on mainstream media—connected with many voters. His plan focussed on young men, working-class people and those who felt disappointed by traditional politics. Many of them were newly interested in conservative ideas, according to a report from NBC News.

But just as the campaign was starting to pick up speed, something unexpected from outside the country broke the Conservatives’ momentum.

Trump’s assault on Canadian sovereignty

When President Trump returned to the White House, tensions between countries started rising again. But few people expected how strongly he would go after Canada. In early February, Trump made the trade fight with Canada worse by adding a 25 per cent tax on Canadian goods.

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His repeated comments that Canada would be better off as the “51st state” of the US galvanised public opinion in favour of the Liberals. At first, people thought he was joking, but according to Time reporter David Moscrop and NBC News journalist Jennifer Jett, his government soon made real policy changes and took unfriendly steps that showed he was serious.

Canadians reacted with rare unity and pride. People started boycotting American products, booing the US national anthem at hockey games and strongly supporting Canadian-made brands. NBC News reported that even famous Canadians like Wayne Gretzky faced backlash. His wine brand was mocked because of its connection to Trump.

Trump’s remarks were seen as an insult to Canada’s pride and independence. These comments quickly became the main issue in the election. A wave of national pride led many people to change their political views. According to journalist Rogers in The New York Times, polls from the Angus Reid Institute showed that 51 per cent of voters who moved from supporting the Conservatives to the Liberals said Trump’s actions were a major reason why they switched.

Carney: The right leader at the right time?

During this crisis, Mark Carney stepped in as the new Prime Minister of Canada and leader of the Liberal Party. Carney had never been elected to office before, but he was chosen quickly in a fast leadership contest after Justin Trudeau stepped down.

As reported by Moscrop in Time, Carney had previously been the head of central banks in both Canada and the UK. He brought a calm, expert approach and strong international reputation at a time when many Canadians were worried about instability and pressure from other countries.

Carney quickly became popular. According to The New York Times, an Angus Reid poll in late March showed he was the only major party leader with a net positive approval rating. In the same poll, 52 per cent of Canadians said they would rather have Carney as prime minister than Poilievre. His experience handling crises helped him, especially when he firmly stood up to Trump’s aggressive language.

Carney made it clear he wouldn’t enter any trade talks with the US until Trump stopped talking about making Canada a US state. This strong position helped him appear as a solid protector of Canada’s independence.

Because of this, the election focus changed. Instead of worrying about issues like government spending—which Poilievre often talked about—voters were now more focused on who could best defend Canada from US pressure. Carney was now seen as the one standing strong for Canada.

Collapse of the Conservative lead

The impact on the Conservative Party was quick and harsh. What had once been a strong 25-point lead turned into a six-point loss, based on polling data from CBC’s poll tracker and Nanos Research, as reported by Rogers in The New York Times and Jett in NBC News. Poilievre, often called “Trump-lite” by his critics because of his populist style and political views, found it hard to separate himself from the influence of the American president.

Poilievre tried to change his message by promising to stand up to Trump and protect Canada’s trade interests. But because he had often echoed Trump’s style and ideas before, many people didn’t believe his change was real.

The New York Times reporter Norimitsu Onishi noted that many voters saw Poilievre’s earlier silence on Trump’s comments as a sign that he agreed with them, which made him seem less trustworthy as a national leader.

The Conservatives also lost the support of key voter groups. At first, younger men and working-class voters supported Poilievre, but new data showed that this support was fading. According to polling from Angus Reid, only one group—men between the ages of 35 and 54—still clearly backed the Conservatives. At the same time, support from women and older voters moved strongly to the Liberals.

Liberal resurgence and left-wing consolidation

In Canada’s divided political system, bringing supporters together is very important. The comeback of the Liberal Party didn’t just come from unhappy voters in the political centre—it also came from the left. The New Democratic Party (NDP), which is the main progressive choice in Canada, saw its support drop to record lows. As reported by The New York Times, many left-leaning voters chose to support Carney and the Liberals in order to stop the Conservatives from winning.

Philippe Fournier from 338Canada pointed out that voters known as “ABC” voters—meaning “anything but Conservative”—were no longer just a small group. According to The New York Times, this time they became a strong and united force, driven by fear of Trump and a lack of trust in Poilievre.

By early April, the Liberals had reached an average of 44 per cent support across the country, while the Conservatives had dropped to 38 per cent. In Canada’s parliamentary system that level of support could be enough to give the Liberals a majority government—something that seemed almost impossible just a few months before.

Political risks of populist branding

Poilievre’s situation shows the risk of pushing a strong political agenda too far, especially during uncertain global times. His support for Trump-style populism was once seen as a smart way to connect with frustrated voters.

But when the American president became aggressive toward Canada, that close connection turned into a big problem. Because Poilievre and Trump shared similar ideas—like being against elites and not trusting the media—many voters began to see Poilievre as too close to Trump, especially when they wanted a leader who would clearly stand up to him.

Political experts say that Poilievre didn’t adjust fast enough to this new political situation. As veteran Conservative strategist Tim Powers explained in The New York Times, Poilievre was focussed on attacking the Liberals, even though the public was now supporting them as a way to defend Canada’s national identity.

Carney’s strategic gambit

Prime Minister Carney’s timing has turned out to be astute. By calling a snap election, he took advantage of the strong patriotic feeling in the country before it could fade. As reported in Time, Carney started his campaign by promising to win a strong mandate so he could stand up to Trump’s administration and protect Canada’s interests—connecting national pride with keeping the Liberals in power.

He also made bold policy moves to show he was serious. One example was his decision to review Canada’s plan to buy F-35 fighter jets from the US company Lockheed Martin. His first foreign trip was to meet with European allies, not to visit Washington, sending a clear message that Canada would not be pushed around—and that he was the leader to make sure of that.

It’s still unclear if this wave of support will last until election day, but with less than a month left, the Liberals have completely changed the story. Now it’s Trump, not Trudeau, who is shaping Canada’s political future—and Poilievre, who once seemed likely to win, is now struggling to keep up.

What began as a referendum on domestic governance has become a national referendum on how to respond to a combative foreign power. President Trump, by attempting to dominate and demean Canada, has inadvertently become the saviour of a political party he once sought to undermine. And for Poilievre, it may be Trump—not Carney—who ultimately proves to be the insurmountable opponent.