Can China attempt a Venezuela-style operation against Taiwan?

Calls by some Chinese online users for a Venezuela-style seizure of Taiwan’s leadership have drawn attention, but analysts, scholars and security officials say such a move is far from feasible. The debate comes as China continues to modernise its military, while Taiwan remains on high alert for any attempt to target its leadership.

Security experts say China would face a well-prepared adversary in Taiwan. The island has spent years preparing against a so-called “decapitation operation” aimed at its leaders. It has extensive air defences, advanced radar systems and early-warning capabilities. Analysts also point to the likelihood of support from the United States and its allies.

PLA modernisation raises questions

Although China has invested heavily in advanced weapons over the years, doubts remain about the People’s Liberation Army’s ability to deploy them effectively. Analysts question whether the PLA’s command structure can integrate different capabilities smoothly during combat.

“Once such an operation runs into trouble, it would quickly escalate into a full-scale conflict, with extremely high political and military risk,” said Chen Kuan-ting, a lawmaker from Taiwan’s ruling Democratic People’s Party.

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He said Taiwan’s layered air defence and early warning systems mean any air assault or special-operations infiltration crossing the Taiwan Strait would likely be detected, increasing the risk of escalation.

US operation highlights capability gap

The United States recently demonstrated its military reach during an operation to extract Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife. The mission showcased air dominance through the use of stealth fighters, aircraft that jammed enemy defences, and covert reconnaissance drones and satellites providing real-time intelligence to commanders.

By comparison, the PLA still faces shortcomings. It “still has clear gaps in real joint-operations experience, electro-magnetic and electronic-warfare capabilities, and actual combat validation of high-risk missions,” Chen said.

China rules out force to take Taiwan 

China, which claims democratically governed Taiwan as its own territory, has not ruled out using force to bring the island under its control. Taiwan’s government rejects China’s claims.

“Operationally, while the PLA is in recent times trying to get up to speed with force integration, it is still baby steps compared to what the Americans have for decades been accumulating,” said Singapore-based security scholar Collin Koh.

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Taiwan is determined to defend its sovereignty and boost its defence, President Lai Ching-te said last month, after Beijing fired rockets towards Taiwan as part of its latest military drills.

The drills surrounding Taiwan - the most extensive to date - were accompanied by strong messaging from Chinese officials and the military.

“Any external forces that attempt to intervene in the Taiwan issue or interfere in China’s internal affairs will surely smash their heads bloody against the iron walls of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army,” China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said in a statement.

In October, Lai unveiled a multi-layered air-defence system called “T-Dome”.

It is intended to be similar to Israel’s “Iron Dome”, with a more efficient and “sensor-to-shooter” mechanism for a higher kill rate that integrates weaponry from Taiwan-developed Sky Bow missiles to U.S.-supplied HIMARS rocket systems.

In July, Taiwan’s military staged a drill to protect Taipei’s main airport from a hostile landing.

Su Tzu-yun, a researcher at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defence and Security, described significant defences around Taipei, including long-range missiles in nearby mountains, shorter-range weapons at the Tamsui River entrance and military police equipped with shoulder-fired Stinger missiles.

“Altogether, this forms a complete defensive perimeter,” Su said.

While military attaches say China has war-gamed extraction operations in Taipei in a broad range of military options to take control of Taiwan, some Chinese online users cited the U.S. action in Venezuela as inspiration.

“The Venezuelan situation has provided us a solution for unifying Taiwan,” said one user on the X-like microblogging site Weibo.

“First, use special operations to arrest Lai Ching-te, then immediately announce the takeover of Taiwan, issue new identity cards … and achieve a swift and decisive victory.”

Chen, who sits on the foreign affairs and defence committee of Taiwan’s parliament, dismissed such remarks as “fantasy” and other analysts said any such attempt would quickly face hard military realities.

China had added aircraft to replicate platforms such as Boeing’s EA-18G Growler electronic-warfare jet and Northrop Grumman’s E-2D Advanced Hawkeye command and early warning aircraft, but their precise capabilities had yet to be delineated, Koh said.

With the ruling Communist Party still playing a role in the PLA’s command structure, doubts remain about its effectiveness, added Koh, who is with the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

“A decentralised command-and-control hierarchy is essential; that allows field commanders to exercise necessary initiative to cope with the fluid, evolving and uncertain nature of military operations as events unfold,” Koh said.

Despite any perceived PLA shortcomings, Taiwan’s leaders are taking no chances, however.

“We have no capital to take them lightly,” said a senior Taiwan security official, who spoke on condition of anonymity as the military issues are sensitive.

“After all, in the wake of this painful and shocking experience, China will also look for all kinds of ways to overcome these problems.”

(With agency inputs)