Brazil Supreme Court set to rule on Bolsonaro amid Trump’s scrutiny and tariffs

The landmark trial of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro entered its final phase on Tuesday as the Supreme Court began hearing closing arguments in the case accusing the 70-year-old right-wing firebrand of orchestrating a plot to remain in power after he lost his 2022 reelection bid.

The final stretch of the trial, expected to conclude by September 12, will unfold under the glare of U.S. President Donald Trump, whose administration is scrutinizing the case he denounced as a “witch hunt” against his Brazilian ally.

Trump used the case as his main argument to impose sweeping 50% tariffs on many Brazilian goods, sanctioned Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who is overseeing the proceedings, and took away the visas of most of his colleagues.

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In his opening remarks on Tuesday, Moraes said a “criminal organization” had tried to coerce the high court’s submission to “the scrutiny of a foreign state.”

He said those efforts would not affect the court’s decision because “national sovereignty cannot, should not, and will never be vilified, negotiated, or extorted.”

Bolsonaro’s son, Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro, moved to the U.S. in March to start a campaign in his father’s defense and has claimed credit for Trump’s retaliation against Brazil and Moraes. Both father and son are now under investigation for inviting Trump’s interference.

Bolsonaro has consistently maintained his innocence, even as he relinquished any hope of being acquitted by the Supreme Court, as he told Reuters in a July interview.

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“They want to convict me,” he said.

On Saturday, Moraes ordered inspections of all vehicles leaving Bolsonaro’s residence and enhanced monitoring of the area over flight risk concerns. Police found a document last month suggesting he may have considered seeking political asylum in Argentina – an allegation that his lawyers deny.

Moraes has become a commanding symbol of the strengths and weaknesses of the institutions Bolsonaro has long attacked. While his supporters see him as a courageous defender of a young democracy, right-wing critics view his actions as politically motivated persecution.

“He is taking on a leading role” in ensuring that crimes against democracy are punished, said Senator Eliziane Gama, a center-left politician.

As with many high-profile cases before Brazil’s Supreme Court, the trial is being broadcast live, drawing millions of Brazilians to their TVs and phones to witness another dramatic chapter in the country’s deeply polarized political saga.

The final stretch of the trial caps a years-long investigation into the causes and context of the 2023 invasion and defacing of Brazil’s most iconic civic landmarks, such as the Congress and the Supreme Court, by thousands of Bolsonaro supporters who were protesting his electoral defeat.

The trial could draw fresh demonstrations, too. On Sunday, dozens of people demonstrated their support to Bolsonaro in front of his home in Brasilia, and other protests are scheduled for the coming days.

The trial of Bolsonaro, a former army captain, and several of his allies, including high-ranking military officials, could also mark a historic reckoning for a country that has never held its armed forces accountable for leading a violent and corrupt dictatorship from 1964 to 1985.

While the court could impose sentences totaling more than 40 years, Brazilian law typically allows convicts to be released well before serving their full terms.