Boeing expects airlines to need almost 44,000 new aircraft in next 20 years

Boeing Co. said Monday (June 16) it expects airlines to need 43,600 new aircraft globally over the next 20 years, with emerging markets in China and Southeast Asia driving demand as rising incomes allow more people to travel.

The forecast is slightly lower than Boeing’s estimate a year ago, when the US aerospace giant projected a need for 43,975 aircraft through 2043. The downward revision reflects a more cautious outlook on global economic growth, the company said, according to a report by Bloomberg.

Despite concerns about trade tensions and tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, Boeing remains confident in long-term demand, citing the aviation industry’s ability to rebound from past geopolitical and economic disruptions, including the COVID-19 pandemic.
“At the end of the day, our market has proven to be both resilient and a growth industry,” said Darren Hulst, Boeing’s vice president of commercial market, during a media briefing on June 10.

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Boeing anticipates the worldwide commercial fleet will double to 49,600 aircraft by 2044. That forecast aligns with recent projections from European rival Airbus SE. The company also said that by then, carriers in emerging economies will operate more than half the world’s jetliners, up from nearly 40 per cent in 2024.

The planemaker expects single-aisle jets to dominate global fleets, increasing their share to 72 per cent from the current 66 per cent. Models like Boeing’s 737 Max and Airbus’s A320neo remain in high demand as airlines look to expand capacity.

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But meeting that demand remains a challenge. Boeing and Airbus are still producing aircraft at rates comparable to a decade ago, even though air travel has surged since the pandemic. According to Hulst, the companies have manufactured around 1,500 fewer planes than originally planned.

Bridging the shortfall will depend on whether both manufacturers can return to pre-pandemic delivery levels — and eventually surpass them.

“That probably takes at least until the end of the decade,” Hulst said.