Biden rewrites nuclear rules: US prepares for China’s accelerating atomic ambitions

In a decisive move, President Joe Biden on Tuesday approved a highly classified nuclear strategic plan in March marking a significant shift in the United States’ deterrent strategy. For the first time, the focus is explicitly on China’s rapid nuclear expansion, signaling a new era in global power dynamics.

China’s growing nuclear threat

The report which came out in the New York Times said that the Pentagon has raised alarms over China’s burgeoning nuclear capabilities, projecting that within the next decade, China’s nuclear stockpile will rival those of the United States and Russia in both size and diversity. This stark reality has necessitated a reevaluation of America’s nuclear posture as the traditional balance of power undergoes a dramatic transformation.

Secretive nature of the New Guidance

Dubbed the “Nuclear Employment Guidance,” the revised strategy was quietly approved without public announcement. The document, updated roughly every four years, is so sensitive that only a few hard copies exist, accessible to select national security officials and Pentagon commanders. Despite its secrecy, White House spokesperson Sean Savett clarified that the guidance is not a response to any specific nation or threat, but rather a broader reorientation of US nuclear strategy.

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Evolving global nuclear landscape

Historically, the notion that America’s adversaries could coordinate nuclear threats against it was considered unlikely. However, the deepening military ties between Russia and China, coupled with North Korea and Iran’s provision of conventional arms to Russia for the Ukraine war, have significantly altered Washington’s strategic calculations. Intelligence agencies are now investigating whether Russia is bolstering North Korean and Iranian missile programmes in exchange for their support.

Despite former president Donald Trump’s optimistic predictions that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un would dismantle his nuclear arsenal following their three summits, the opposite has occurred. North Korea has expanded its nuclear arsenal to over 60 weapons, with the capacity to produce even more. This growing arsenal now poses a significant challenge to US missile defences and could potentially enable coordinated nuclear threats with Moscow and Beijing.

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New reality for the next US president

The updated nuclear strategy serves as a stark reminder that the next US president, who will take office on January 20, will face a more volatile and unpredictable nuclear landscape. The past three years have seen unprecedented shifts, with Russian President Vladimir Putin repeatedly threatening nuclear action against Ukraine. The crisis in October 2022, where US intelligence intercepted concerning communications among Russian commanders, brought the likelihood of nuclear use alarmingly close to 50 per cent.

In response, President Biden, along with leaders from Germany and Britain, successfully persuaded India and China to publicly denounce the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, temporarily defusing the crisis.

China’s ambitious nuclear expansion

The second major shift stems from China’s nuclear ambitions. Under President Xi Jinping, China has accelerated its nuclear expansion at a pace that has outstripped even the most pessimistic predictions by US intelligence. Abandoning its longstanding “minimum deterrent” strategy, China is now on a path to match or surpass the nuclear capabilities of both the US and Russia. This rapid expansion has made China’s nuclear complex the fastest growing in the world.

A new nuclear reality for US war plans

The evolving global nuclear environment was bound to influence American war plans and strategy. The US-based Arms Control Association, however, noted that the core of US nuclear strategy remains unchanged from the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review. While China’s nuclear arsenal is expected to grow from 500 to 1,000 warheads by 2030, Russia, with its approximately 4,000 nuclear warheads, continues to be the primary driver of US nuclear strategy.