As Zelenskyy seeks Tomahawks, can Ukraine really use these missiles to hit Russia?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wants to buy US-made Tomahawk missiles to intensify the ongoing campaign of strikes deep inside Russia. But there are doubts about the country’s ability to use these missiles — and that has nothing to do with its military’s skills.

Tomahawks are primarily launched at sea from ships and submarines — the United States attacked one of the three Iranian nuclear sites in June with submarine-launched Tomahawks. But, as Ukraine lacks a functional navy, such missiles are out of bounds for the country.

While such an impediment would suggest that any US supply to Ukraine could reduce Tomahawks to cosmetic value, there are workarounds that could indeed allow Ukraine to use the missile — and Ukraine has shown throughout the war that it is up for improvising weapon systems to adapt to battlefield conditions.

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Last year, the United States adopted land-based launchers for Tomahawks that are in service with the US Army and Marines. Moreover, US defence giant Oshkosh unveiled a ground-launch vehicle this week, X-MAV, that can carry and launch four Tomahawk missiles.

While X-MAV has not yet been tested, it could directly be deployed to Ukraine. There is precedent for Western military systems being directly deployed to Ukraine, such as Germany’s Skyranger air-defence system that is being deployed to Ukraine even before its adoption by the German military.

Can Ukraine really use Tomahawk missiles?

The decisive factor would be the availability of land-based launchers. And there are signs that arranging launchers or workable solutions is possible.

Kyiv Post has reported that there are two batteries —each with four launchers— of land-based launchers with the US Marine Corps that are not in use.

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If US President Donald Trump would really want to signal his shifting position to Russian leader Vladimir Putin, he could send those launchers to Ukraine — since they are not in use anyway.

Moreover, if X-MAV has entered production, Ukraine can directly buy those launchers from the manufacturer.

If these solutions work out, Ukraine could be in a position to launch Tomahawks deep inside Russia within a matter of weeks if not a few months.

Tomahawks can make a difference

While Tomahawks will not be a silver bullet for Ukraine, these missiles —coupled with other Ukrainian weapons like Flamingo— can definitely make a difference.

Tomahawks are cruise missiles with a range of 1,250–2,500 kilometres. In addition to being extremely precise, they are also quite stealthy as they hug the terrain, flying just 30-50 metres above the surface, to minimise detection.

Tomahawks have demonstrated in Syria that they could bypass Russian air defences, according to Andriy Kovalenko of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation.

Russian systems covered Syrian targets at the time but failed to down Tomahawks, Kovalenko told DW News.

Kovalenko further said that Tomahawks are “especially effective when launched in salvos, as overloading air defenses increases their success rate”.

Kovalenko added that Russian S-400 or Pantsir air-defence systems are “weak against Tomahawks”.

Ukraine is expected to use Tomahawks along with its other homegrown drones and missile to target Russian weapon manufacturing sites, energy facilities, railways, and command and control centres of the military.

For months, Ukraine has been battering Russian energy facilities. The damage has been such that Russia has fuel shortage at the moment and has banned the export of petrol and partially banned the export of diesel. Ukraine has struck 21 of 38 major Russian oil refineries — including some of the biggest refineries like Kirishi and Ryazan. Ukraine has claimed that Russia’s refining capacity has fallen by 21 per cent.

While Russian oil output has fallen and its critical infrastructure has suffered damage, the pinch has not been enough to force Putin to the negotiating table. Zelenskyy would hope that Tomahawks could add to the pressure on Putin.

If all goes well, Ukraine may get up to 200 missiles. Consider this: an average Nato weapons package for Ukraine is of half a billion US dollars and The New York Times has reported that one Tomahawk costs around $2.5 million.