As guns fall silent in Gaza, Ukraine has a strategy to end war: No, it’s not halting attacks

After US President Donald Trump struck a deal between Israel and Hamas, Ukraine has announced its strategy to end its war as well. But that does not include a ceasefire with Russia. Instead, it includes ramping up strikes.

For weeks, Ukraine has been waging an intensifying campaign of missile and drone attacks on energy facilities deep inside Russia. The idea is to deliver blows to the Russian economy and put pressure on Vladimir Putin to come to the negotiating table.

And while there is no indication yet that Putin may come to the negotiating table, Ukrainian strikes are already making a difference.

Consider these facts: Ukraine has struck 21 of 38 major Russian oil refineries and resultant domestic shortages are such that Russia has banned the export of petrol until the year's end and partially banned the export of diesel. Ukraine has claimed that Russia’s refining capacity has fallen by 21 per cent. And some of the biggest Russian refineries —such as the Kirishi and Ryazan refineries— have been hit repeatedly and their output is down substantially.

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Additionally, Ukrainian strikes have also blown-up factories, depots, ports, and railways deep inside Russia.

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The fact that most of this has been achieved with domestically made missiles and drones adds to the pressure on Russia.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has dubbed the strategy “long-range sanctions” or “drone sanctions”.

“Putin has been offered many times to end the war or at least cease fire. He spurned all proposals — ours and America’s. So it’s only fair that Russia bears the war’s full cost,” said Zelenskyy.

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With Trump’s blessing, Ukraine hits Russia where it hurts

To be sure, Ukraine is striking inside Russia with Trump’s explicit backing.

In recent months, Trump appears to have become increasingly frustrated with Putin’s refusal to join peace talks and agree to a ceasefire. As a result, Trump appears to have encouraged long-range strikes inside Russia. And he is helping Ukraine execute such strikes as well.

So far, Putin has rejected all Trump-endorsed ceasefire proposals — even as they appeared to be much more beneficial to Russia than Ukraine.

For months, the United States has been providing Ukraine with intelligence inputs to carry out strikes inside Russia on energy and other critical infrastructure, according to The Financial Times.

The FT has reported that US intelligence has been helping Ukraine shape route-planning, altitude, timing and mission decisions, enabling Ukraine’s long-range, one-way attack drones to evade Russian air defences. One US official said that while Ukraine selected targets and then the US intelligence agencies provided inputs. But other officials said the United States also set out target priorities for Ukrainian strikes.

Currently, a Ukrainian delegation led by Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko is in the United States to hold talks with the Trump administration about potential weapons deals. Later this week, Zelenskyy will meet Trump at the White House on Friday.