As Trudeau falls to inflation and Canada looks right, a question — did he take too long to quit?

Nine years after Justin Trudeau won a strong parliamentary majority and emerged as the poster boy of Western liberalism, he stood cornered on Monday (January 6) as he announced resignation as the Prime Minister of Canada and Leader of the Liberal Party.

Far from the promise of a golden future that Trudeau began his term with, he has instead presided over rising inflation, spiralling housing crisis, failed immigration policy, worsening of relationship with the United States and Canada, and is now leaving office as a disgraced leader wanted neither by his party nor his electorate.

Last month, nearly a third of his MPs called for his resignation and a survey showed that as many as 69 per cent Canadians wanted him to go.

Even though it is just now that Trudeau has resigned, Canada’s honeymoon with the nepo baby —he is the son of two-time PM of Canada Pierre Trudeau (1968-79, ‘80-84)— ended long back. In the 2021 parliamentary elections, his Liberal Party lost his majority and he has since run a minority government with support from Jagmeet Singh’s New Democratic Party (NDP). After NDP withdrew support in September the government was running on fumes.

While observers said that NDP’s withdrawal of support could lead Trudeau to resign in an attempt to preserve last shreds to dignity, he clung to power until his own party rejected him. Ahead of a party conference on Wednesday, Trudeau announced his resignation on Monday so he could jump the ship instead of being thrown out by his own MPs.

Canada’s economic woes under Trudeau

Trudeau has left the economy and fiscal state of Canada in tatters over the past nine years.

For the past six quarters, Canada’s per-capita GDP growth has been declining and has fallen to 3.5 per — the lowest in history outside of a formal recession.

Canada is also in the grips of a cost-of-living crisis as wages are not in line with inflation, unemployment has risen, and property rates as well as rent has skyrocketed, leading to a surge in homelessness and housing shortages.

Since coming to power in 2015, Trudeau has doubled Canada’s federal debt on the back of handouts to household and businesses. Such payments amounted to as much as 16 per cent of the entire economy last year.

Unemployment remains high at 6.4 per cent and several of his signature policies, such as carbon tax and stand on immigration, have turned out to be either unpopular or total failures.

Trudeau tanked his party’s chances

By staying as the Liberal Party’s leader and the PM of Canada till this week, Trudeau not just ensured his popularity’s decline but also that of his party.

As per the latest poll carried by CBC News, the Conservative Party has a 24 per cent lead over Liberals.

This means that unless something Earth-shattering —literally Earth-shattering— happens or pollsters’ have been imagining numbers, the Liberal Party is headed to a decisive victory in elections later this year with or without Trudeau.

John Ruffolo, the founder of Toronto-based Maverix Private Equity, told Bloomberg that even if Trudeau’s replacement as Liberal leader seeks to run on a platform of change, “it’s an academic exercise”.

“Whoever is running the party, I believe, is going to lose in a landslide win for the Conservatives. So it doesn’t really matter at the end of the day,” said Ruffolo.

Last month, nearly a third of Trudeau’s MPs called for his resignation in an internal meeting and a poll showed that 69 per cent Canadians wanted him gone.

Trudeau failed to see the writing on the wall — either out of hubris or lack of political common sense.

Gerald Butts, a political consultant at Eurasia Group who was principal secretary to Trudeau until 2019, suggested that his former boss fell to inflation massively.

Inflation “is a government killer and it doesn’t pay any attention to the ideological bent of the government in power”, said Butts.

“Like a lot of governments, they [Libera;s] were slow to recognise both the fact of inflation and the remedies that were going to be required,” said Butts to Bloomberg.

Trudeau has bought himself time — but will it be enough?

In a desperate bid to stay afloat and avoid ouster in a vote of confidence, Trudeau has suspended the parliament till March 24.

While Trudeau has bought time, it may not be enough.

The return date of the parliament is just days before the deadline of March 31 by when the parliament is required to vote on federal funding for government departments for the first three months of the fiscal year. This would mean there would inevitably be a vote of confidence in late March either on the federal funding or on the Speech from the Throne that follows a period of prorogation by convention. Trudeau is almost certainly going to lose that vote.

The Conservatives and Bloc Québécois have said they would vote against Trudeau and NDP has said the same. However, it remains to be seen whether NDP’s leader Jagmeet Singh would actually vote against him — Trudeau has a ‘he loves me, he loves me not’ relationship with Singh and has found in him a friend in his anti-India campaign on the back of their mutual patronage of Khalistani movement in Canada.

If Trudeau loses the vote of confidence, then Canada stares at an election months ahead of scheduled polls by October.