As Russia tightens grip on Pokrovsk, has Ukraine's gamble with Kursk invasion failed?

After weeks of encouraging updates from Russia’s Kursk where Ukraine has made rapid gains, it is now time for grim news.

Even as Ukraine has captured more than 1,000 square kilometres of territories in Russia’s Kursk province , it may be about to lose a very significant city.

The Russian forces are nearing the city of Pokrovsk in Donetsk province. It is a very strategic city which is logistical hub, an industrial powerhouse, and is considered the gateway between eastern and central Ukraine. If the city falls, Ukraine not just loses supply lines in the entire region but Russian forces acquire a launchpad for mounting assaults deeper in Ukraine and controlling other strategic cities.

Along with Luhansk, the Donetsk province comprises the eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region whose control remains the primary objective of Russia’s war. If Pokrovsk falls, Ukraine’s grips on the entire region is threatened .

Has the gamble with Kursk incursion failed?

From the onset, the idea behind the Kursk incursion was to ease the pressure on Ukrainian forces in other theatres of the war . As Russia has not just continued to press towards Pokrovsk but has also deployed more personnel, the basic premise of Kursk incursion stands shattered.

While Russia has continued to press towards Pokrovsk , Ukraine has been starved of some of its best soldiers.

Estimates suggest that around 10-15,000 soldiers have been pressed into the overall incursion into Russia, which has spread to the second Russian province of Belgorod. These soldiers include special forces personnel, mechanised units, and are some of the best-trained the country has. At a time when Russia is threatening Ukraine’s hold over large swathes of Donbas region, Ukraine does not have some of its best soldiers.

In an article in Foreign Affairs, Michael Kofman and Rob Lee noted that these 10-15,000 soldiers “would have served as an important reserve to stem Russian momentum” if they were not withdrawn.

Even though the incursion was hailed as a bold offensive taking the war to Russia’s turf and winning large tracts of land to use a bargaining chip, Kofman and Lee noted that any real success was doubtful from the onset.

“The offensive has yet to draw significant Russian forces from Ukraine’s eastern regions, and it remains unclear how Ukraine’s leaders intend to translate this tactical success into strategic or political gains. The offensive offers opportunities, but also carries considerable risks and costs…Ukraine’s military leadership also hoped the incursion would divert Russian forces from its frontlines in the east; however, the commander in chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Oleksandr Syrsky, said that Russia has instead intensified its efforts and deployed its most combat-ready units to the Pokrovsk front in Donetsk,” noted Kofman and Lee.

They further highlighted that the Kursk incursion also does not change the fundamental differences between Ukraine and Russia in any way. They flagged that Russia continued to have an advantage in terms of numbers, equipment, and ammunition.

Even though such an advantage has not always translated in operational breakthroughs, Russia has steadily gained around 1,200 square kilometres of territory inside Ukraine since October 2023 and has continued to gain even after the Kursk incursion began, write Kofman and Lee.

Separately, Polish military strategist Muzyka told The Kyiv Independent that “it’s absolutely clear that the situation in Kursk is eating up a lot of resources that Ukraine would otherwise be able to send to Donetsk”.

Why Russia wants to control Pokrovsk

Major railway lines and roads run through Pokrovsk which connect different parts of Ukraine. These roadways and railways are not critical arteries for connectivity for Ukraine but are also key to supply lines to Ukraine’s forces fighting against Russia. If the city falls, these supply lines get severed.

Moreover, Pokrovsk also has a major railway station and has Ukraine’s largest coal mine, which produce coke used by the country’s industries.

Moreover, Pokrovsk is engaged in also engaged in metallurgy and machine-building and is adjacent to another mining town, Myrnohrad, which is even closer to the frontline and is coming under fierce bombardment, according to BBC News.

The fall of such a logistical and industrial hub could be a disaster for Ukraine. The importance is such that the city is known as the ‘Gateway to Donetsk’.

The Kyiv Independent noted that Russia has always strived to control higher grounds like Pokrovsk from where they can operate drones and conduct artillery strikes.

The control of Pokrovsk would also boost Russia’s campaign to capture the city of Chasiv Yar, which sits on higher ground and would offer opportunities to capture an even wider area, according to Sky News.