Despite gains in Kursk, Ukraine at risk of 'operational catastrophe' if this town falls to Russia

Even as Ukraine has made rapid gains in Kursk, it has done little to nothing to stop Russian attacks in eastern Ukraine.

The Russians have closed in on the strategic city of Pokrovsk in Donetsk province. If Russia wins the city, then Ukraine’s hold over the entire Donbas region comprising Donetsk and Luhansk regions gets compromised. Moreover, the control of Pokrovsk will also open the doors for deeper ingress into Ukraine.

A well-known Ukrainian military observer said the loss of Pokrovsk will be an “a serious operational catastrophe”, according to The War Zone.

The Russians are just 8 miles from Pokrovsk and evacuations have already been ordered in the town. Amid all-round efforts to defend and minimise civilian casualties, the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk has also come into question. From the onset, it was said that the idea behind the incursion was to force Russia to divert its forces from other theatres of war and relieve the pressure on Ukrainian defenders in those theatres. That has not been the case so far.

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Pokrovsk’s loss will trigger domino effect: Military analyst

The loss of Pokrovsk will trigger a domino effect and would lead to fall of other cities too.

Once Russians wins Pokrovsk, they are likely to push deeper into the nearby Dnipro province, said military analyst Tatarigami, who runs the Frontelligence Insight.

Such a grave prediction is rooted in the strategic location of Pokrovsk. The city is bisected by a major rail line and three highways goes through the city. Several roads branch out of the city for several places. The city thus remains a wall against a “large-scale collapse in the region”, according to The War Zone. Once the city falls, the wall preventing the fall of the larger region also falls.

Pokrovsk “has become a key distribution hub, supporting Ukrainian forces along a broad frontline from Vuhledar to the north of Donetsk and beyond…Currently, only two places in the Donbas serve this vital function – Pokrovsk and Kramatorsk. The significance of Pokrovsk extends beyond its rail connections – it is also located at a key road juncture, serving a similar role in the transportation and distribution of supplies," said analyst Tatarigami, as per The War Zone.

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Tatarigami further said the H20 Highway, linking Pokrovsk to Kostyantynivka, “has long been a Russian target".

“Cutting it off would worsen the resupply of troops in the Bakhmut-Horlivka sector. The potential loss of Pokrovsk poses an operational threat to logistics in the region, from Vuhledar to Horlivka,” said Tatarigami.

‘Pokrovsk must be defended at all costs’

Pokrovsk is so important that it must be defended at all costs, said war veteran Oleg Symoroz.

“There is still time to prepare the city for defense. Pokrovsk must be defended, it is of strategic importance…The road to the [Dnipro] region passes through the city of Pokrovsk, so the enemy here must be restrained," said Symoroz, as per The Warzone.

In a separate statement on Telegram, the army chief said Ukraine is doing exactly the same.

“Battles are extremely tough. The enemy throws into battle everything that can move and advance, trying to break through the defense of our troops. The most intense battles are taking place on the eastern outskirts of Hrodivka, further along the border of the Kamiany and Krasny ravines, directly in Novorhodivka, below, in the area of ​​the eastern outskirts of Mykhailivka, which is located in front of Selidovo," said Coonel-General Oleksandr Syrskyi on Thursday on Telegram.

Separately, the army said Russia has occupied 11 villages around Pokrovsk.

Did gamble on Kursk go wrong?

As Russia appears to be on the verge of capturing Pokrovsk, the gamble with the Kursk invasion appears to have gone wrong.

As the idea was to relieve the pressure in other theatres of war, the invasion has failed as it did not happen. The War Zone noted that Ukraine diverted around 10,000 troops, including some of the best units and armoured vehicles, out of the Pokrovsk region.

A former high-ranking Ukrainian officer told The War Zone that the Kursk invasion did not work well.

“Kursk did not work well regarding this direction. The Russians have probably read us," said the officer.

The analyst Tatarigami concluded that the “time is against the defenders, and there is a risk of a serious operational catastrophe”.