As pro-West & Russia-friendly forces contest Georgia elections, here's what at stake

Georgia is holding elections on Saturday (October 26) that may very well decide the east European nation’s future.

Two starkly opposing parties are contesting the elections. The ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party is friendly to Russia and the Opposition United National Movement (UNM) party is pro-West and pro-EU.

Georgia’s accession to the European Union (EU) is also at stake. While the UNM support EU membership, the pro-Russia GD is effectively against the membership.

Ahead of the elections, Russia has also waged a disinformation campaign to bolster GD’s case and demonise the West and pro-West UNM.

Here is why the 2024 Georgia election is so critical.

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A referendum between joining EU and Russian orbit

The Georgian elections have become a referendum on the place of the nation in the world.

The victory of Opposition would mean an embrace of the EU but the victory of incumbent GD, which has run the nation since 2012, would mean the country would slip further into Russian orbit.

Last year, a poll found that 89 per cent of Georgians preferred to be part of the EU.

EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell has said that the Georgian elections will determine “which way they want to go: toward Europe or getting apart from Europe.

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As Georgia’s accession to EU stands halted over GD regime’s activities, the nation has already lost €121 million in aid from the EU, and as the EU’s envoy to Georgia has warned, the country is at the risk of losing financial assistance altogether it halts its accession process, according to Politico.

Authoritarian shift and friendship with Russia & China

Even though the GD formally says that it would join EU but only on its own terms, it has parroted Russian talking points so much that it now appears to be a Russian proxy like Belarus’ ruler Aleksandr Lukashenko.

Following the Russian playbook, the GD regime has brought a ‘foreign agent law’ and anti-LGBTQ+ law. Even though the party claims to be supportive of the EU, it is at the fore of bashing the West and ‘LGBTQ+ agenda’ of the West.

Besides repeating Russian talking points, the GD regime has also forged a strategic partnership with principal Russian ally China and has been probing closer ties with Iran, as per Politico.

On Ukraine War, which has threatened the entire Europe, the GD regime maintains that the United States and the EU are influenced by a “global war party” that wants to “drag Georgia into the Russo-Ukrainian war”, according to the magazine.

The GD continues to be a proxy of Russia even as Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 and continues to occupy around a fifth of the country even today.

Does Georgian Opposition stands a chance?

In the 150-member parliament, a party will need 76 to form the government.

While it is expected that the GD could emerge as the single-largest party, it is not assured of forming the government.

As all other parties have refused to form government with the GD, there is a chance that a wide-ranging coalition of Opposition parties may form the government.

If the GD falls short of 76 seats, a united opposition could form the government and the groups have agreed to let anti-GD President Zourabichvili name the prime ministerial candidate, according to Politico.

A lot, however, also depends on the success of the repression by the GD regime and the Russian disinformation campaign. In the run-up to election day, there have been reports of large-scale intimidation and Opposition leaders have been attacked during campaign. There have also been reports that GD supporters have attacked civil activists. Journalists and civil society groups have also felt threats and vandalism.

In the run-up to the election, Russia accused the United States of preparing to stage a Ukraine-style revolution in the streets to stop the GD from winning, according to the BBC.

No evidence was shared to back the assertion.

Now, Russia has peddled rumours that a high-ranking unidentified foreign official has asked Georgia to join the war with Russia within days, as per the BBC.