Armenian PM warns war with Azerbaijan 'very likely'; why it is high time the world pays attention

Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan has warned that a war with Azerbaijan is “very likely.”

Accusing Azerbaijan of “genocide” in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, Pashinyan told AFP, “So long as a peace treaty has not been signed and such a treaty has not been ratified by the parliaments of the two countries, of course, a (new) war (with Azerbaijan) is very likely.”

Similar concerns have been raised earlier and it’s high time that the world takes note. Armenia and Azerbaijan have already fought two wars over the enclave- the most recent in 2020, and skirmishes between the two have continued since.

Talks between the two former Soviet nations mediated by EU, US, and separately by Russia have failed to achieve a breakthrough so far.

Two ongoing events have escalated fears of another full-blown conflict in the Caucasus. One is the Russia-Ukraine war and the other is the ongoing Nagorno-Karabakh blockade by Azerbaijan.

Distracted by Ukraine, Russia’s role as a mediator in the region has  weakened.

The 2020 Karabakh war, which international observers say was triggered by Azerbaijan, saw Armenia cede most of the territories it held since the 1990s to Baku.

The conflict came to an end after Moscow mediated a peace deal and as part of the agreement, Russia stationed nearly 2,000 peacekeepers in the region. Moscow also has a pre-existing agreement with Yerevan which states that Russia will provide military protection to Armenia if the latter is attacked. The agreement does not cover Nagorno-Karabakh.

Since the start of the Ukraine war, an isolated Russia has been trying to avoid confrontation with Azerbaijan despite various instances of ceasefire violations by Azeri troops.

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In September 2022, Azerbaijan attacked Armenian cities when Russia shifted some of its soldiers from Karabakh to Ukraine.

What made this attack different was that Azerbaijan attacked Armenian territory, however, Russia did not intervene militarily.

Backed by its powerful NATO ally Turkey, Azerbaijan has been increasingly attacking Armenian positions in Karabakh. Armenia has time and again slammed Russian troops for “failing” to contain Azeri escalation.

Key corridor’s blockade brings region back to the brink of war

Another issue at the heart of the Armenia-Azerbaijan tensions is the ongoing blockade of the Lachin corridor- the only land link between Karabakh and Armenia.

Since December 2022, a group of so-called Azeri ’eco-activists’ have been blocking the corridor to protest against what they call “illegal mining.” Armenia has accused the Azeri government of “orchestrating” the demonstrations while the latter has accused Yerevan of using the Lachin corridor to transport land mines into Nagorno-Karabakh.

The blockade has triggered a humanitarian crisis in the enclave with residents facing food and medicine shortages as supplies from Armenia have come to a halt due to the barrier.

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The situation worsened when Azerbaijan set up an illegal checkpoint in the Berdzor Corridor,… pic.twitter.com/CSCige3jtk

— 301🇦🇲 (@301arm) July 21, 2023

Even vehicles from the International Red Cross have been finding it difficult to navigate the blockade.

Yerevan says that the blockade is an attempt by Baku to force Armenians to leave the territory. Azerbaijan denies the accusations.

Also read: Blackouts to food shortage: How Azerbaijan's blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh triggered a humanitarian crisis

Attempts to end the blockade have failed. In May 2023, Armenia even agreed to officially recognise Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan but demanded international mechanisms for the protection of the rights and security of the region’s ethnic-Armenian population.

Azerbaijan rejected any global mechanisms saying that such guarantees must be provided at the national level. Baku’s refusal to allow international observers only adds to concerns about the present situation and also the future of Armenians in Karabakh.

There’s no doubt that in order to avert a war, the blockade must end. And for the current situation to improve, global mediators like EU should be willing to engage with Russia.

But the first step is to acknowledge the magnitude of the crisis.