 "Armenia-Azerbaijan tensions: Distracted by Ukraine, Russia is losing its influence in South Caucasus")
On 10 January, Armenia’s PM Nikol Pashinyan announced that his country will not be hosting a Russia-led multination drill this year.
He told reporters that Armenia considers the military exercise of the Moscow-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization planned for later this year “inappropriate in the current situation.”
The move signals Armenia’s growing frustration with Russia over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Yerevan has accused Russian peacekeepers of failing to contain the Azerbaijani escalation in the disputed conclave. Kremlin, surprised by Pashinyan’s announcement, called it a “rather new statement.”
“In any case, Armenia is our very close ally,” it said.
“We will continue the dialogue. Including those issues that are now very complex,” Kremlin added in a possible reference to Karabakh.
For Moscow, Pashinyan’s announcement may be something new but this is far from the first time, the Armenian PM has taken a stand critical of Russia.
On 27 December 2022, during a bilateral, Pashinyan told Putin that Russian peacekeepers are not in control of the Lachin corridor- the only land link between Karabakh and Armenia.
Also read: From Ukraine, Karabakh to Pakistan: 10 conflicts the world can't ignore in 2023
The remark came as Azerbaijani “activists” continue to block the Lachin corridor in protest against what they call “illegal mining.”
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View AllThe “demonstrations” have been going on for more than a month. During this time, representatives of the Armenian-populated Nagorno-Karabakh have met the leader of the Russian peacekeepers but to no avail.
Azerbaijani ‘activists’ block route controlled by Russian troops
The blockade continues and so does the humanitarian crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh. Residents have been facing food and medicine shortages as supplies from Armenia have come to a halt due to the blockade.
More than 20 vehicles carrying humanitarian cargo and fuel from the Russian peacekeeping contingent passed through the Berdzor (Lachin) corridor in Artsakh today. pic.twitter.com/y41zHV2XVP
— 301🇦🇲 (@301arm) January 9, 2023
Former Soviet nations Armenia and Azerbaijan fought a bloody war over Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020. The conflict, which international observers say was triggered by Azerbaijan, saw Armenia cede most of the territories it held since the 1990s to Baku.
However, full-scale fighting between the South Caucasus neighbours stopped after a Moscow-brokered peace deal in November 2020. As part, of the agreement, Russia deployed 2,000 peacekeepers in Karabakh.
Russian peacekeepers shifted to Ukraine front
The most serious escalation since the 2020 war happened in September 2022 when Azerbaijan attacked Armenian cities.
Notably, the attack coincided with the Russian troop drawdown in Karabakh. In September 2022, Moscow shifted some of its soldiers from Karabakh to the Ukrainian frontlines to battle a successful counteroffensive by Kyiv.
As its strongest ally continues to be engaged on the Ukraine front, Armenia finds itself alone against the more powerful Azerbaijan which is backed by NATO member Turkey.
The escalation in Karabakh is also a reflection of Russia’s weakening position in the Caucasus region that it has traditionally dominated.
Moscow seems increasingly unwilling to sever ties with Azerbaijan and Turkey. Both have enjoyed more or less good relations with Russia and an increasingly isolated Moscow is inclined to avoid any run-ins with few of the nations with which it still enjoys cordial relations.
Even if that comes at the cost of losing its influence in the South Caucasus.
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