 "America nervous as Trump gears up for 'Liberation Day': What's happening")
Even though US President Donald Trump has pitched April 2, the date he is set to start the rollout of reciprocal tariffs, as the ‘Liberation Day’, the general atmosphere in the country is that of fear and fatigue.
Investors, businesspersons, as well as commoners are stressed over how tariffs are going to affect them. While there is little clarity about the specifics of the rollout, there is general consensus that prices are going to rise. Coupled with other policies, such as unfunded tax cuts and mass-firings in the public sector, there is a real possibility of tariffs driving the country into a recession — or stagflation in the worst-case scenario.
Contrary to what Trump has claimed, tariffs will not be paid by countries being tariffed but by American businesses and consumers buying goods and services that are being tariffed. As a result, an average family’s annual bills could rise by 2.1-2.6 per cent and the country’s GDP could fall by 0.9-1 per cent, as per the Yale Budget Lab.
However, the White House, is upbeat and expects to raise around $6 trillion in revenue from these increased costs borne by Americans, according to Washington Post.
Ahead of the rollout, all economic indicators are grim. The consumer sentiment is at a four-year low amid persistent inflation. The Moody’s has raised the possibility of recession this year to 40 per cent from 15 per cent. In March, the S&P 500 fell by 5.8 per cent, the Nasdaq by 8.2 per cent, and the Dow Jones by 4.2 per cent.
Fear, fatigue, frustration: the mood in America
In the immediate aftermath, costs of nearly everything needed everyday by consumers and businesses is set to rise: electronics, lumber, pharmaceuticals, cars, etc.
Joe Gilbert, a portfolio manager at Integrity Asset Management, best sums up the mood of the public: frustrated and fatigued.
“The best way to summarise this trading environment is frustration and fatigue. We don’t really have a clear playbook on how to proceed,” Gilbert told Bloomberg.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsTrump has said he does not care about prices of cars rising from tariffs. He has dismissed the possibility of recession as a transitory episode. He and his allies have said that the economic pain is going to be worth it. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen has said that buying cheap goods is not an American goods so there is nothing wrong with increased costs.
However, the American public and businesses care about prices and the future of economy and trade. Prof. Stephen Haber of the Stanford University has said that ideological commitment of voters is unlikely to override the hit from tariffs.
“My bet would be that people will not be willing to swallow higher prices, lower 401(k)s, lower wealth in exchange for the principle of a nationalistic economy. Reality tends to trump ideology for most people,” Haber told New York Times.
Carley Garner, the founder of DeCarley Trading, said that there has been fundamental shift among investors. Fear and a sense of loss have taken over the previous sense of profit-making.
“We’ve gone from a mindset of focusing on greed and how much money can I make to a mindset of fear and how much money can I lose. And it’s definitely been an emotional change for traders. Our clients aren’t panicking quite yet, but if stocks bounce back and we start cracking down and making new lows again here in the next couple of weeks, I think panic will set in,” Garner told Bloomberg.
Larry Fink, the CEO of BlackRock, said that nearly every client is anxious.
“I hear it from nearly every client, nearly every leader—nearly every person—I talk to: They’re more anxious about the economy than any time in recent memory, but we have lived through moments like this before. And somehow, in the long run, we figure things out,” Fink told Bloomberg.
The situation is such that even right-leaning figures are criticising Trump’s policies.
Douglas Holtz-Eakin, the founder of right-leaning American Action Forum, told Financial Times that Trump is running “a real risk of recession” and “there’s an enormous amount of anxiety” as a result.
Holtz-Eakin further said, “That’s incredibly foolish just from a domestic macro policy perspective. When you start layering in the international, global implications . . . it’s just easy to be very, very nervous about this.”
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