Alireza Arafi: The Iranian cleric who may trip Khamenei's son to be the next Ayatollah

In politics, there exists a triad of stages: the overt, the ostensibly evident and the wildcard. In Iran’s current landscape, while the abrupt passing of President Ebrahim Raisi has undoubtedly shocked many, there exists another narrative unfolding swiftly and discreetly. Even prior to the identification of the crash site, Supreme Leader Ali Khemenei declared that the governance of Iran would remain unaffected.

Whether interpreted as a reassurance to the populace or perceived as a display of disregard towards Ebrahim Raisi, it became apparent that the Ayatollah was contemplating beyond the present turmoil delving into the strategic depths of the future. His expressed sorrow on Twitter notwithstanding, his words resonated more with a strategic calculus rather than mere grief.

Death of Ebrahim, rise of Mojtaba

There’s speculation that Mojtaba, Khamenei’s second son, is vying for the position of Supreme Leader once his 85-year-old father’s tenure concludes. With Raisi, another contender, tragically passing in a helicopter crash, Mojtaba’s aspirations for the Ayatollahship may have edged closer to reality. Having matured under his father’s influence, his staunch conservatism is palpable. For the foreseeable future, it seems improbable that he would adopt a more open-minded and liberal stance, should he assume the role of Ayatollah.

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There is also the rumour now that there will be an election for the post of president within two months as the Iranian constitution has mandated, there is a high of Mojtaba participating and winning. However, the simplest path in politics can be the trickiest.

A wildcard from Yazd

Born in 1959, Alireza Arafi, a cleric from Yazd, emerges as a dark horse in the political landscape. His previous roles as chancellor of Al-Mustafa International University and Friday Prayer leader of Meybod attest to his influence. Since 2019, he’s been a member of the Guardian Council, while also serving as Friday prayer leader in Qom since 2013. Furthermore, his involvement in the High Council of Cultural Revolution and directorship of the Management Centre of Religious Seminaries highlight his extensive experience in Iranian politics. In 2015, Arafi ran for the Assembly of Experts from Tehran but lost. However, he managed to win an assembly seat in 2021.

Unlike Mojtaba who seems to be increasingly leaning towards orthodox Islam, Arafi is tech-savvy and wants the clergy to embrace new technologies which could bring out the institution from its centuries of monotonous practices.

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According to the Financial Times, Arafi said in July last year that the seminary should engage with modern, progressive technology and artificial intelligence. He emphasised the importance of entering this field to advance Islamic civilisation. Arafi is also an Ayatollah, which is a high-ranking religious honorific bestowed upon Shia Muslim clerics who have achieved the highest levels of scholarship and expertise in Islamic jurisprudence. It’s a title of respect and authority within the Shia Muslim community. While the number of individuals holding this title can vary over time due to factors such as scholarly achievements, appointments and advancements within the religious hierarchy, Iran’s Supreme Leader should be by default an Ayatollah.

Why Arafi is a dark horse?

Akin to what is often discussed in India, parivarvaad or dynastic politics may come in the way of Mojtaba’s grand dreams. Or something that is a offscreen hot topic in Bollywood – nepotism.

An Iranian Canadian political analyst and freelance journalist Shahir Shahidsaless in a piece Who Will Be Iran’s Next Leader? Not Khamenei’s Son wrote that the leader of the 1979 revolution Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini who overturned the Shah repeatedly denounced hereditary rule as equivalent to an illegitimate monarchy. Khamenei, following his footsteps in 1989 termed hereditary governance as a violation of Islamic principles. As late as July 2023, Khamenei said “dictatorship and hereditary government are not Islamic”.

However, contrary to what he said in 2023, Khamenei did not allow an investigation against Mojtaba regarding leadership hereditary issue as was revealed by Ayatollah Mahmoud Mohammadi Araghi in March this year. There is no doubt Raisi would have been a tough contender given his unquestionable loyalty.

Shahidsaless believed that without the help of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and the security-intelligence apparatus which Khamenei used effectively to his advantage, the next Supreme Leader won’t be able to consolidate his position.

Khamenei had once called Arafi as an “original, intellectual and resourceful jurist" and the same scholar might stand in the way of Mojtaba’s ascension by sheer merit. In Raisi’s demise only a soldier is off the battlefield forever, but the battle is still on.