Ahead of Xi Jinping’s visit, Brazil's BRI snub marks a diplomatic setback for China

Brazil has chosen to work flexibly with China instead of officially joining the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This decision shows that Brazil wants to benefit from Chinese investments while keeping its independence and avoiding tensions with other countries, especially the United States. Although President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is open to the BRI, his advisors and ministers are being careful, considering both the economic benefits and the potential political risks.

This choice marks a shift from China’s plans to showcase Brazil’s entry into the BRI as a key achievement during President Xi Jinping’s upcoming visit to Brasília on November 20. President Xi will also attend the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro on November 18-19 and has visited Brazil before in 2014 and 2019.

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During Lula’s trip to Beijing in April 2023, China repeated its request for Brazil to join the BRI, which now includes 150 countries, 22 of which are in Latin America. In the end, both countries released a statement expressing their commitment to explore how their development policies can work together, focussing on Brazil’s plans for development and investment, including efforts to integrate South America, as well as China’s policies and initiatives like the BRI.

A pragmatic approach

Brazil’s careful approach to joining the BRI shows that it wants to avoid binding commitments that might link its economy too closely to China’s goals. Although Special Presidential Adviser Celso Amorim initially supported the idea of Brazil joining the BRI, he has now changed his stance. According to the South China Morning Post, Amorim stated that Brazil wants to strengthen its ties with China without formal agreements. This indicates that Brazil prefers flexible partnerships that match its own interests rather than strict alliances. This practical approach allows Brazil to work on beneficial projects with China while maintaining its independence.

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This strategy allows Brazil to use Chinese funding for infrastructure without becoming too dependent on China. By staying outside formal BRI membership, Brazil keeps the freedom to choose projects that fit its economic goals reducing the risk of relying too heavily on a single foreign power.

Economic self-interest

A major reason behind Brazil’s decision not to fully join China’s BRI is to protect its own industries and ensure that any projects with China bring mutual benefits. Unlike smaller countries that depend heavily on China for support, Brazil has a strong economy and abundant natural resources, giving it more power to negotiate. Brazilian officials worry that joining the BRI might lead to exporting raw materials without truly advancing Brazil’s economy.

Instead, Brazil wants partnerships that bring in new technology and strengthen areas that support its goals for reindustrialisation. Amorim stressed that Brazil has its own infrastructure priorities, which China “may or may not” agree with. By focussing on projects that support technology, sustainable development and Brazil’s unique goals, the country hopes to avoid a one-sided relationship. For example, Brazil’s industries in agriculture and renewable energy could benefit from Chinese investment if projects are designed to boost Brazil’s long-term growth and stability.

Balancing act between the US and China

By not joining China’s BRI, Brazil also wants to avoid causing tension with the US. Brazilian diplomats advised President Lula to delay any decision on the BRI until after the US presidential election, showing their concern that aligning too closely with China might strain Brazil’s relations with the US, which is trying to limit China’s influence in the Americas.

Recently, US Trade Representative Katherine Tai advised Brazil to think carefully about joining the BRI, pointing out potential risks. China, however, called Tai’s comments “irresponsible” and likened them to the Monroe Doctrine, a past US policy meant to assert control in the Americas. According to China’s Global Times, Tai’s remarks reflect a view that treats Brazil as a “backyard” of the US, fuelling more tensions between the US and China over influence in Latin America.

By staying out of the BRI, Brazil aims to keep its options open, allowing it to build strong trade relations with both the US and China without being caught in a power struggle. This balance is important for Brazil as it manages its connections with both superpowers in a changing global landscape.

Environmental and social concerns

Brazil’s cautious approach also comes from concerns about the long-term impact of Chinese investments. In some Latin American countries, Chinese BRI projects have faced criticism for harming the environment and exploiting local resources, which has raised doubts about whether these investments truly help local communities. Brazilian leaders have noticed similar issues in places like Africa and Southeast Asia, where communities have voiced concerns over the environmental and social effects of China-led projects.

Brazil’s strong environmental agenda, especially its commitment to protecting the Amazon rainforest, makes it particularly alert to these risks. Any infrastructure projects with China would likely face close examination from Brazilian regulators, environmental groups, and indigenous communities. With a focus on sustainable development and green energy, President Lula’s government must carefully weigh the environmental impacts of BRI projects against any potential economic benefits.

Strategic patience

While President Lula showed interest in joining the BRI in July, officials from Brazil’s economy and foreign affairs ministries have stressed a cautious approach, making it clear that any decision depends on China’s readiness to address Brazil’s specific concerns. Following a recent visit to Beijing, where Special Adviser Amorim and Chief of Staff Rui Costa met with Chinese representatives, the delegation reportedly came away “unconvinced and unimpressed” by China’s offers.

Brazil’s cautious approach to China’s BRI reflects its broader foreign policy focus on independence and economic control. While China is a key trade partner, Brazil is making it clear that it wants to work together on its own terms, rather than joining a global initiative that might limit its freedom.