A message to West? China-Belarus armies train on Poland border, not far from Ukraine

Is the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war entering a new phase? This question has become significant in the view of fast-paced developments.  

China has sent a group of army personnel to Belarus for joint military training on Monday. Hungary Prime Minister Viktor Orban met China President Xi Jinping in Beijing on his “Peace Mission 3.0”, following his surprise visits to Russia and Kyiv soon after his country took over the presidency of the European Union.  

Against this backdrop, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visits Warsaw to meet Poland’s leadership, with Prime Minister Donald Tusk receiving him at the airport.  

And the site where Chinese and Belarussian soldiers are conducting their joint military training is on the Poland border, not far from the Ukrainian border.

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The Belarus angle

Belarus has been a close ally of Russia, to the extent that it has allowed its borders to be used by Russian forces to supply war essentials to support the troops that invaded Ukraine in February 2022. Belarus President Aleksandr Lukashenko has not opposed Russia President Vladimir Putin’s interpretation of the Rus nation when he includes Belarus in it. It is the same logic that Putin applied when he ordered his forces to invade Ukraine. Putin strongly felt that Zelenskyy was obliterating the Rus nation heritage in Ukraine to align it more with the West.  

Belarus has supported Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but without committing its own troops to the war. Back in 2022, when Russian forces launched the all-out invasion of Ukraine, they sent troops across the Belarus borders but suffered reverses near Kyiv and were forced to halt and later pull back.

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Lukashenko’s allegiance toward Putin and Russia saw his country becoming a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation at the recently held summit at Kazakhstan’s Astana — the meeting which India Prime Minister Narendra Modi skipped earlier this month. Belarus has long been considered as a ground for launching more offensive against Ukraine or other Nato members if the West decides to get involved in the ongoing war more directly. Belarus has concretised its equation with Putin’s strongest ally China with the fresh move.

The Poland angle

The choice of the site — Brest — for the joint military training is also curious. It is located on the Poland border. And it is not far from the Ukraine border. Officially, it is an “anti-terror training”, code-named “Eagle Assault”. But the military exercise comes amid a number of military and defence-related developments.

Poland, a Nato member, has been vocal about its support to Ukraine. Its support to Ukraine turned a leaf on the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last February, when Poland’s then-Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki paid a surprise visit to Kyiv.

Photographs in the press showed Morawiecky standing next to Zelenskyy in a khaki jacket to match the Ukrainian president’s wartime style. The Polish prime minister brought with him the first delivery of Leopard tanks, a solidarity gesture worthy of a good neighbour.

However, Poland has also maintained “friendly” relations with China, with its President Andrzej Duda visiting the country to hold talks with Xi last month. The meeting was a rare occasion when the top leader of a Nato-member nation visited the country that supported Russia in its offensive against Ukraine.

The military exercise also comes when the Nato has upped its supplies to Ukraine and member-countries are holding a summit in the US to celebrate the trans-Atlantic military grouping’s 75 years of formation. The Nato members are likely to commit more to extend military aid to Ukraine, whose Zelensky will be attending the meeting.

What Eagle Assault means to China

In its official statement, China said the exercise was part of “an annual plan” based on a “mutual agreement” between the two countries. The exercise aims to enhance the training and coordination capabilities of the participating troops and deepen practical cooperation between the ground forces of the two countries.

Given Poland is Nato member and Duda only recently having said that he was “happy” that Xi called him “a friend”, China seems to be sending a message to the West that as the US-led bloc pressures Beijing in the South China Sea and over Taiwan, the new global power is also capable to reach their doorstep. That Russia has already sustained all the sanctions that the West could impose on the country despite its struggling economy, China is much better placed to manage its affairs in the situation of a direct clash with the West or a military grouping in Asia-Pacific.  

For record, Quad — a grouping of India, Australia, Japan and the US — are scheduled to conduct a naval exercise in the South China Sea later this year. And in a first, Japan has signed a defence pact with an Asian country — Philippines, burying the lingering issues of the Second World War. Both countries have had tense relationships with China over its military assertiveness in the region. Japan had signed similar pacts with the UK and Australia last year — the two countries increasingly complaining about China’s aggressive trade and military behaviours.