9/11 legacy: After Afghanistan, is Yemen another failure of America’s 'war on terror'?

This day 23 years ago, the world changed forever in many ways — more profoundly in its fight against terror. The United States of America, after being hit by al-Qaeda at multiple locations including the World Trade Center in New York, launched its war on terror, forming military coalitions with its allies.  

While Afghanistan is the best known case, the US’s war against terror in Yemen has largely remained under a slightly dimmer public spotlight. But the US has been fighting against militia forces in Yemen since 2002. Yet, the Houthis of Yemen control a vast tract of the country and also influence the Red Sea navigation. In Afghanistan, where the US replaced Taliban only to hand over the reins of power to Taliban after 20 years. In Yemen, it appears to have been more confusing than in any other country.

This Sunday, Yemen’s Houthi rebels claimed that they shot down an American-made MQ-9 drone that they said was flying over the country. This wasn’t the first striking down of a high-tech American aircraft. But this downing of the multimillion-dollar surveillance aircraft was a statement by the Iran-backed Shia militia group that even after 22 years of American presence and military assault, the Houthis hold sway over southern Yemen and more importantly, the Red Sea.

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Before the downing of the American aircraft, the Houthis struck the Saudi-flagged Amjad and the Panama-flagged Blue Lagoon 1 5his month. In all, they have struck more than 80 ships in the Red Sea since the war in Gaza began in October 2023. Despite warnings and assaults, the rebels have said the attacks will continue until Israel ends its war on Gaza.

Aspiring to be the solitary political power in Yemen, the Houthi campaign since the Israel-Hamas (another Iran-backed militia) war has curtailed the shipping activity through the Red Sea — one of the busiest sea routes earlier — by about 90 per cent. This is when the US has deployed two aircraft carriers in the region.

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The US have launched airstrikes over Houthi-controlled territory after each strike but this has been going on for years. It has conducted nearly 400 attacks in Yemen since 2002. These attacks have included commando raids, targeted drone assaults, cruise missile attacks and conventional airstrikes.  

Some of the attacks have been quite controversial, such as the one commander raid of 2017. Several Yemenis including women and children were reportedly killed by US Navy SEALS. The US strikes have continued through the last week.

Why MQ-9 downing matters

This wasn’t the first time that the Houthis have downed a General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper drone. They have done it repeatedly since 2014, when they seized Yemen’s capital, Sanaa.  

Reapers are said to cost around $30 million apiece. They have been regularly used by the US military and its Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) for their ability to fly at altitudes over 15,000 metres for up to 24 hours without requiring a landing. Its downing by the Houthis shows that it’s not afraid of directly needling the US even as it provokes Israel.

This is also a statement that Iran’s backing has been unwavering amid heightened tension with Israel and signs of warming up in its relationship with Iran, with efforts to bring nuclear talks back on track.

Attacks by the Houthi forces have sharply increased since October 2023, with a particular focus on the Red Sea corridor. The Americans have increased the intensity of their strikes against Houthi targets since January. But the deterrence does not seem to have dampened the motivation of the rebels in Yemen.

The Yemen story

Yemen has had a bloodied modern history with civil wars before the reunification of North and South Yemens in the early 1990s, with Ali Abdullah Saleh of North Yemen becoming the president of the Republic of Yemen. But by the mid-1990s, a sectarian conflict began, turning into another civil war — Shia groups revolting against majority Sunni rule.

In 2000, Saleh reached a deal with Saudi Arabia, hoping to bring peace in Yemen. But it too proved short-lived as rebel leader Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi galvanised militia groups in response to Saleh’s border deal with Saudi Arabia. Al-Houthi launched a war against the Yemeni government in 2004. His forces came to be known as the Houthis — earlier known as Ansar Allah.

Another major switch came in the wake of the Arab Spring of 2011. Saleh was forced to quit and flee. His deputy Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi took over power in Yemen but the Houthis continued their war against the Yemen government, and in 2014, captured its capital Sanaa.

A change in strategy

For years, the US kept a low-profile as its ally Saudi Arabia launched a coalition war against the Houthis. Back then, Saudi Arabia said the war against the Houthis would be over in a few weeks. It has been 10 years and the Houthis have grown only stronger, of course with Saudi Arabia’s arch-rival Iran.

The US provided weapons, combat training, and “logistical and intelligence support” to the Saudi Arabia-led military coalition. That support was to keep Yemeni President Hadi in power. But the Houthis overthrew his government in 2021.  

The US, later, changed its strategy. During Donald Trump’s presidency, the US had frozen a $73 million humanitarian assistance to Yemen, fearing that the Houthis would capture the aid and consolidate their position further. This adversarial approach underwent a change after Joe Biden became the US president.

Biden revoked the Houthis’ terrorist organisation status in February 2021. Later, the US also removed advanced missile defence systems from Saudi Arabia. His administration also ended support for the Saudi-led coalition’s offensive operations in the conflict, appointed Timothy Lenderking as a special envoy for Yemen and supported the UN-led peace process, with an assurance to Saudi Arabia about the defence of its territory. The aim was to ensure regional stability and keep the Yemeni civil war from spreading to other countries.

The efforts saw results with the Houthis agreeing to a truce deal in April 2022 — brokered by the United Nations. The deal lapsed in October 2022 but hostility did not escalate, and for most part of 2023, China emerged as a mediator. Several rounds of peace talks happened with the Houthis and Saudi Arabia talking to one another. For the first time, a Houthi delegation travelled to Saudi Arabia. But all changed with the Hamas raid on Israel on October 7, 2023.

Situation worsens, and the US fights again

After Israel launched a counteroffensive in Gaza, the Houthis withdrew from peace moves and started targeting vessels passing the Red Sea from November 2023. By January 2024, the US department of state issued a statement putting the Houthis back to the list of Foreign Terrorist Organisations (FTO).

The US action came as the Houthis “launched unprecedented attacks against international maritime vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, as well as military forces positioned in the area to defend the safety and security of commercial shipping”.  

“The Houthis must be held accountable for their actions, but it should not be at the expense of Yemeni civilians,” said the US, adding, “If the Houthis cease their attacks in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, the United States will reevaluate this designation.”

The Houthis, however, say that they would “continue to perform their jihadist duties in victory for the oppressed Palestinian people and in defence of dear Yemen”. They say that the attacks will stop only after Israel announces a ceasefire in Gaza. And every effort of the US has failed in getting a truce deal done between Israel and Hamas. The Houthis continue to attack and the US continue to retaliate, with no side securing a win or yielding to the other force.