 "6 ways Trump 2.0 may change the world")
The return of Donald Trump to the White House in 2025, often referred to as “Trump 2.0,” has sparked a mix of excitement and concern worldwide. US President Donald Trump is known for his unconventional style of governance and his policies during his first term disrupted traditional norms leaving a strong impact on trade, immigration, climate change and global politics. From reigniting trade conflicts to changing alliances and slowing renewable energy efforts, the Trump presidency is set to bring significant changes to international relations and domestic policies with effects felt globally.
1. Trade and tariff wars
In his inaugural address after being sworn in as the 47th US president, Trump emphasised a nationalistic approach to trade. He outlined plans to overhaul the trade system with the aim of protecting American workers and families. Trump stated his intention to impose tariffs and taxes on foreign countries arguing that this strategy would prioritise enriching American citizens over benefiting other nations.
However, President Trump is unlikely to immediately implement sweeping tariffs on his first day back in office, despite previous threats, as such a move could lead to higher prices for American consumers and harm US businesses, according to economists as cited by NBC News. Instead, Trump plans to direct federal agencies to evaluate various aspects of trade policy and propose actions. These reviews will include existing tariffs, trade agreements like the USMCA, intellectual property policies and measures to promote the purchase of American-made goods. President Trump in his inaugural address also announced the plans to create an external revenue service to oversee tariff collection.
During his campaign, Trump pledged to impose a 25 per cent tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico until the influx of illegal drugs, particularly fentanyl and unauthorised migrants into the US is halted. He also proposed a 10 per cent tariff on imports from China until Beijing ceased the export of fentanyl to the US. In the past, Trump has even threatened tariffs as high as 60 per cent on Chinese goods.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsTariffs have been a cornerstone of Trump’s economic platform, which he claims would protect American industries by making imported goods more expensive and encouraging companies to relocate manufacturing to the US to avoid these additional costs.
President Trump is expected to renew trade conflicts, particularly with China, by imposing stricter tariffs and tighter export controls. His first term saw significant tariffs on Chinese imports, triggering a trade war that disrupted global supply chains. A second term could see an escalation with heightened restrictions on critical technologies like semiconductors and artificial intelligence to curb China’s influence.
The weakened enforcement capacity of the World Trade Organisation (WTO)—a result of the US blocking appellate body appointments during Trump’s first term—could further encourage unilateral tariff actions. Such moves might disrupt the global trade system, compelling other nations to adapt or retaliate with countermeasures.
Additionally, disputes over energy policies, especially involving Canadian oil imports and environmental issues, could resurface, adding further strain to regional relationships.
North American dynamics could swing between cooperative trade discussions and contentious disputes, potentially affecting economic stability and labour markets across the region.
2. Impact on North American neighbours
Key components of Trump’s immigration agenda include reinstating the “Remain in Mexico” policy for asylum seekers crossing from Mexico and designating drugs cartels, such as MS-13 and Tren de Aragua, as Foreign Terrorist Organisations. However, the Mexican government has expressed concerns about Trump’s unilateral approach to the policy, highlighting potential challenges to its implementation.
Additionally, Trump announced plans to declare a national emergency at the US-Mexico border, granting the Defence Department authority to deploy military and National Guard troops. Decisions about the military’s rules of engagement would fall to the defence department, raising questions about the scope and nature of their role in border enforcement.
Relations with Mexico and Canada, critical partners in the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement), are likely to face renewed strain under a Trump administration although he spared Canada from the looming challenges for Mexico, particularly stricter immigration policies including higher deportation rates and tighter border controls.
The second Trump term could entrench these policies further, potentially inspiring other nations to adopt similarly restrictive immigration frameworks.
4. Boost to fossil fuel, stalling green energy progress
President Donald Trump announced the United States’ intent to withdraw from the Paris climate accord for a second time, rejecting global efforts to address climate change despite escalating catastrophic weather events. While the formal exit requires a year after submitting notice to the UN, this move undermines international cooperation, potentially prompting major polluters like China to scale back its commitments. The withdrawal comes as global temperatures have recently surpassed the critical 1.5°C warming threshold, highlighting the urgent need for climate action.
Trump also declared a “national energy emergency,” pledging to expand drilling and scrap stringent pollution standards for vehicles, which he labelled an “electric vehicle mandate.” He vowed to end Biden’s climate policies, including the Inflation Reduction Act and rejected the Green New Deal, aiming instead for “American energy dominance.”
The energy sector welcomed these measures, viewing them as a return to fossil fuel reliance. However, environmental advocates criticised the decision, emphasising the scientific consensus on fossil fuels driving unprecedented global warming and severe climate disasters, such as destructive hurricanes and wildfires. United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres warned that withdrawing from the Paris Agreement could weaken international efforts to combat the climate crisis.
Trump’s presidency could reverse Biden-era progress in renewable energy adoption and emissions reductions, potentially delaying global climate goals. As a leading force in climate initiatives, US disengagement might embolden other nations to deprioritise sustainability, heightening the risk of setbacks in combating climate change.
5. Realignment of global and regional alliances
Donald Trump reaffirmed his intent to reassert US. control over the Panama Canal, accusing Panama of mismanagement and unfair treatment of American ships and the US Navy. Trump criticised the original transfer of the canal, calling it a “foolish gift” and asserting that Panama had violated treaty agreements. He also expressed concern over China’s operational role in the canal, declaring, “We’re taking it back.”
Trump’s “America First” doctrine emphasises bilateral deals over multilateral cooperation signalling potential shifts in global alliances during a second term:
Europe: Trump’s criticism of Nato as an unfair burden on the US and his disdain for European Union policies could weaken transatlantic ties. He may push for closer relationships with nations like Italy and Hungary, which are led by populist governments. This approach could fragment European unity, fostering divisions within the EU and Nato.
West Asia: Trump’s strong support for Israel and Saudi Arabia, alongside his animosity toward Iran, signals potential escalation in regional tensions. A rollback of the Iran nuclear deal and increased sanctions on Tehran would likely be accompanied by efforts to strengthen anti-Iran coalitions in West Asia. This stance could heighten hostilities and deepen existing divides in the region.
China and Russia: Trump’s hardline stance on China, emphasising economic decoupling and countering its geopolitical ambitions, would likely intensify US-China competition. Conversely, his inconsistent approach to Russia and potential reduction of support for Ukraine might weaken Western solidarity against Russian aggression. This could shift the balance of power in Eurasia, benefiting Moscow.
Trump’s foreign policy realignments could fragment the global order leading to competing alliances. The rise of blocs such as Russia-Iran-Turkey and US-Italy-Hungary could redefine international politics leading to a more polarised and unpredictable geopolitical scenario. Such transformations would challenge traditional norms of multilateralism replacing them with a system where national interests dictate alliances and cooperation.
6. Economic and sanction policies
Sanctions could become a central tool of Trump’s foreign policy targeting adversaries like Iran, Venezuela and North Korea. While Biden’s sanctions focused on multilateral coordination, Trump may adopt a unilateral approach, emphasising US economic dominance.
Additionally, Trump’s trade policies could encourage protectionism, impacting global markets. His potential withdrawal from or renegotiation of trade agreements might lead to economic uncertainties particularly in emerging markets.
The path ahead
Trump 2.0 is poised to usher in a period of significant global upheaval. While some policies may bolster American interests, they are expected to disrupt established norms, realign alliances and reshape global dynamics. From trade wars to climate setbacks, the ripple effects of his administration will likely resonate far beyond US borders redefining the contours of international relations and domestic policy for years to come.
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