5 reasons why Turkey chose to open Syria front against Assad's forces now

In a lightening offensive last week, Syrian opposition forces captured much of Aleppo, which was once the largest city in the country.

The offensive comes as a major blow to Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad’s hold on the country, who had been under a bubble of safety for the past four years in which the decadelong Syrian Civil War was essentially frozen. Backed by Russia, Iran, and Iran-backed armed groups in the region, Assad’s regime had clawed back to control most of the country after suffering serious blows in the first half of the war.

Now, however, as Russia is distracted with the war on Ukraine and Iran and its proxies in the region are licking their wounds from the yearlong war with Israel, the opposition forces have found their opportunity.

While it is the Syrian opposition forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a group once formally affiliated with Al-Qaeda, that have popped the bubble of security Assad’s regime was in, the driving hand appears to be that of Turkey.

In the complicated proxy war in Syria, while Russia-Iran bloc supports Assad, Turkey has long supported anti-Assad forces. Both sides have, however, at times clashed with the Kurds, a US-backed ethnic group that controls territories in northeastern Syria.

Here are five reasons why Turkey has upped the ante against Assad now.

Israel has pummelled Hezbollah

Iran-backed, Lebanon-based Hezbollah has been one of the principal allies of Assad. Hezbollah units have fought for Assad’s regime and the group has also maintained bases in Assad-controlled territories of Syria. The group, which is essentially a state in its own right, has been a major supporter of Assad.

Over the past year, however, Hezbollah has been pummelled in the war with Israel, which has eliminated most of its leaders and has neutralised a large chunk of its war-waging capacities. As the group is focussed on its own survival within Lebanon, it is in no shape to come to Assad’s aid.

This meant that Assad lost one of the most potent allies who not just provided fighters against opposition forces but also commanders who advised the regime.

Iran is licking its wounds

Similarly, Iran has been busy licking its own wounds from the war with Israel.

Iran’s allies Hamas and Hezbollah have taken a major beating in the war with Israel and Iran has itself also taken a beating.

In the two rounds of aerial battles with Israel, Iran has lost most of its air defences and has been left “essentially naked” in the words of US and Israeli officials. It has also been reported that Israeli airstrikes also damaged a key component of the Iranian nuclear programme, dealing a major setback to Iran’s idea of developing a nuclear weapon as ultimate deterrence.

Iran has also lost a string of key commanders in the conflict, including a host of senior figures in an Israeli strike in Syrian capital Damascus earlier this year. All of this means that Iran is also in no shape to come to Assad’s aid directly in any meaningful way — even as it is scrambling to contain the crisis.

Russia is focussed on Ukraine & Europe

Even though Iran and Hezbollah have been major allies of Assad, the biggest ally has been Russia — and it is the most distracted at the moment.

It was Russian direct military intervention in 2015 that turned the Syrian Civil War’s tide in Assad’s favour.

Now, however, Russia has been distracted by the war on Ukraine, which is set to enter its fourth year within weeks. As Russian President Vladimir Putin has just approved the largest-ever defence budget, it is clear that Russia is looking forward to make decisive push inside Ukraine with the idea apparent idea of maximising gains to have the upper hand whenever negotiations start.

Syrian opposition forces had time to rearm, regroup

Since the ceasefire in 2020, the Syrian Civil War was essentially in suspension.

While Assad lapsed into a false sense of safety and security, the opposition forces took the time to rearm and regroup. This meant that as soon as the opportunity arose with the distraction of Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, the opposition forces made a dash for Aleppo.

In an article for The Daily Telegraph, British military expert Hamish de Bretton-Gordon noted that “it appears that the various rebel factions, especially the Free Syrian Army and HTS, have been regrouping, rearming and most importantly training” in recent years.

“These rebels we see today in Aleppo are not the ragtag fighters that I saw in Idlib province between 2013 and 2020, but well-equipped outfits who seem to know what they are doing. There are rumours that Turkey is behind the resurgence of the Syrian opposition, but perhaps others have also helped,” noted Bretton-Gordon.

Turkey is most important player in Syria

In the absence of Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, Turkey has emerged as the most important player in Syria.

As Turkey backs the opposition forces, it is clear that there was at least a tacit go-ahead for the latest opposition offensive from Turkey if not direct support.

Omer Ozkizilcik, an expert at the Atlantic Council told AFP that Turkey has a “complex and difficult relationship” with HTS and that “we can clearly say there was indirect Turkish support [for the offensive] but no direct Turkish involvement”.

Ozkizilcik noted that even though Turkey had severed ties with Assad’s regime in 2011 and has since supported the war against it, it has been seeking a reproachment lately. He noted that Turkey only approved the opposition’s offensive after the reproachment failed.

Separately, Charles Lister, the Director of Syria Programme at the Middle East Institute, said “the Aleppo offensive was initially planned for mid-October but Turkey put a stop to it”.

Ozkizilcik further said, “Now with the changing situation on the ground, the balance of power in Syria has shifted: Turkey is the most powerful actor at the moment inside Syria, and Iran and Russia will likely try to negotiate with Turkey.”

Turkey has also made gains against Kurds, a section of whom are waging an insurgency inside Turkey, further strengthening its position in the region.