2023 El Nino among 5 strongest on record, will fuel heat in 2024: Report

The World Meteorological Organization warned today that despite a trend of diminishing, the El Nino that peaked in 2023–24 as one of the five strongest on record will still have an impact on the global climate in the months to come.
Additionally, the UN agency stated that practically all land areas are expected to see above-normal temperatures between March and May.

Global record temperatures and extreme weather occurrences were fueled by the existing El Nino conditions, with 2023 being the warmest year on record.

In January, the global mean temperature broke the 1.5-degree Celsius mark for the first time in a year, according to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.

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“El Nino events have a major impact on societies and economies. Accurate seasonal forecasts from the WMO community helped countries prepare in advance to try to limit the damage in climate sensitive sectors like agriculture, water resources and health. Early warnings of weather and climate extremes associated with El Nino have saved countless lives,” said WMO’s Saulo.

(With agency inputs)

However, long-term warming over a number of years is referred to as a permanent breach of the 1.5-degree Celsius limit, as stated in the Paris Agreement.

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According to the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) most recent report, there is roughly a 60% chance that El Nino will continue from March to May, and an 80% chance that neutral conditions—that is, neither El Nino nor La Nina—would prevail from April to June.

It stated that there is a chance that La Nina will form later in the year, although those chances are still unknown.

According to scientists who are actively monitoring the situation in India, if La Nina conditions occur by June or August, the monsoon rains this year could be better than in 2023.

“Every month since June 2023 has set a new monthly temperature record – and 2023 was, by far, the warmest year on record. El Nino has contributed to these record temperatures but heat-trapping greenhouse gases are unequivocally the main culprit,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.

“Ocean surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific clearly reflect El Nino. But sea-surface temperatures in other parts of the globe have been persistently and unusually high for the past 10 months. The January 2024 sea-surface temperature was by far the highest on record for January. This is worrying and cannot be explained by El Nino alone,” she added.

According to scientists, El Nino usually has the biggest effect on the climate during its second year of development, or in this case, 2024.

According to a Global Seasonal Climate Update released by the WMO, the ongoing, albeit weaker, El Nino and predicted above-normal sea-surface temperatures over most of the world’s oceans are expected to result in above-normal temperatures over almost all land areas in the next three months and influence regional rainfall patterns.

November and January are when the current El Nino phenomenon, which began in June 2023, is at its peak. Its maximum value was around 2.0 degrees Celsius higher than the average sea-surface temperature for the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean from 1991 to 2020. It was therefore one of the five strongest El Nino events ever, though it was weaker than the 1997-98 and 2015-2016 events.

Although El Nino mostly affects seasonal climate averages, it can also increase the likelihood of extreme weather and climate events in some areas.

According to the WMO, seasonal forecasts are more accurate during El Nino and La Nina occurrences, especially in the tropics. This highlights the critical role that early warnings play in assisting with decision-making, improving preparedness, and fostering anticipatory action.(

“El Nino events have a major impact on societies and economies. Accurate seasonal forecasts from the WMO community helped countries prepare in advance to try to limit the damage in climate sensitive sectors like agriculture, water resources and health. Early warnings of weather and climate extremes associated with El Nino have saved countless lives,” said WMO’s Saulo.

(With agency inputs)