Iraq votes amid shifting regional landscape: What's at stake?

Iraqis are preparing to vote in a parliamentary election that comes at a crucial moment in the country and the region.

The vote will begin Sunday with polling for members of the security forces and displaced people living in camps, and the general election is set for Tuesday.

The outcome of the vote will influence whether Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani can serve a second term.

The election comes amid fears of another war between Israel and Iran and potential Israeli or U.S. strikes on Iran-backed groups in Iraq. Baghdad seeks to maintain a delicate balance in its relations with Tehran and Washington amid increasing pressure from the Trump administration over the presence of Iran-linked armed groups.

Here’s a look at what to expect in the upcoming vote.

Spotlight on Iraq’s electoral system 

This year’s election will be the seventh since the U.S.-led invasion of 2003 that unseated the country’s longtime strongman ruler, Saddam Hussein.

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In the security vacuum after Saddam’s fall, the country fell into years of bloody civil war that saw the rise of extremist groups, including the Islamic State group. But in recent years, the violence has subsided. Rather than security, the main concern of many Iraqis now is the lack of job opportunities and lagging public services — including regular power cuts despite the country’s energy wealth.

Under the law, 25% of the country’s 329 parliamentary seats must go to women, and nine seats are allocated for religious minorities. The position of speaker of Parliament is also assigned to a Sunni according to convention in Iraq’s post-2003 power-sharing system, while the prime minister is always Shiite and the president a Kurd.

Voter turnout has steadily fallen in recent elections. In the last parliamentary election in 2021, turnout was 41%, a record low in the post-Saddam era, down from 44% in the 2018 election, which at the time was an all-time low.

However, only 21.4 million out of a total of 32 million eligible voters have updated their information and obtained voter cards, a decrease from the last parliamentary election in 2021, when about 24 million voters registered.

Unlike past elections, there will be no polling stations outside of the country.

Meet the key players 

7,744 candidates are competing, most of them from a range of largely sectarian-aligned parties, in addition to some independents.

They include Shiite blocs led by former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, cleric Ammar al-Hakim, and several linked to armed groups; competing Sunni factions led by former Parliament speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi and current speaker Mahmoud al-Mashhadani; and the two main Kurdish parties, the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan.

Several powerful, Iran-linked Shiite militias are participating in the election via associated political parties. They include the Kataib Hezbollah militia, with its Harakat Huqouq (Rights Movement) bloc, and the Sadiqoun Bloc led by the leader of the Asaib Ahl al-Haq militia, Qais al-Khazali.

However, one of the most prominent players in the country’s politics is sitting the election out.

The popular Sadrist Movement, led by influential Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, is boycotting. Al-Sadr’s bloc won the largest number of seats in the 2021 election but later withdrew after failed negotiations over forming a government, amid a standoff with rival Shiite parties. He has since boycotted the political system.

The Sadrist stronghold of Sadr City on the outskirts of Baghdad is home to roughly 40% of Baghdad’s population and has long played a decisive role in shaping the balance of power among Shiite factions.

But in the run-up to this election, the usually vibrant streets were almost entirely devoid of campaign posters or banners. Instead, a few signs calling for an election boycott could be seen.

Meanwhile, some reformist groups emerging from mass anti-government protests that began in October 2019 are participating but have been bogged down by internal divisions and lack of funding and political support.

Major concerns about the electoral process

There have been widespread allegations of corruption and vote-buying ahead of the election, and 848 candidates were disqualified by election officials, sometimes for obscure reasons such as allegedly insulting religious rituals or members of the armed forces.

Past elections in Iraq were often marred by political violence, including assassinations of candidates, attacks on polling stations and clashes between supporters of different blocs.

While overall levels of violence have subsided, a candidate was also assassinated in the run-up to this year’s election.

On Oct. 15, Baghdad Provincial Council member Safaa al-Mashhadani, a Sunni candidate in the al-Tarmiya district north of the capital, was killed by a car bomb. Five suspects have been arrested in connection with the killing, which is being prosecuted as a terrorist act.

AI-Sudani eyes another term

Al-Sudani came to power in 2022 with the backing of a group of pro-Iran parties but has since sought to balance Iraq’s relations with Tehran and Washington. He has positioned himself as a pragmatist focused on improving public services.

While Iraq has seen relative stability during al-Sudani’s first term, he does not have an easy path to a second one. Only one Iraqi prime minister, Maliki, has served more than one term since 2003.

The election outcome will not necessarily indicate whether or not al-Sudani stays. In several past elections in Iraq, the bloc winning the most seats has not been able to impose its preferred candidate.

On one side, al-Sudani faces disagreements with some leaders in the Shiite Coordination Framework bloc that brought him to power over control of state institutions. On the other side, he faces increasing pressure from the U.S. to control the country’s militias.

A matter of particular contention has been the fate of the Popular Mobilization Forces, a coalition of militias that formed to fight the Islamic State group. It was formally placed under the control of the Iraqi military in 2016 but in practice still operates with significant autonomy. Members of the PMF will be voting alongside Iraqi army soldiers and other security forces on Saturday.