 "Champions League reality check: Premier League dominance rings hollow after tough last-16 first legs")
The presence of six Premier League clubs in the Champions League round of 16 was widely seen as proof of the league’s growing dominance in European football. Yet the first-leg results have quickly dampened that narrative.
Instead of reinforcing English supremacy, the opening matches delivered a sobering reminder that success in Europe is rarely straightforward. Manchester City and Chelsea both suffered heavy defeats, while Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur had already endured disappointing results earlier in the week.
Sobering Champions League matchday for EPL clubs
Even Arsenal, currently leading the Premier League, were pushed to the brink. Mikel Arteta’s side needed a stoppage-time penalty from Kai Havertz to salvage a draw against Bundesliga side Bayer Leverkusen, despite having cruised through the league phase with eight wins from eight matches.
Tottenham’s struggles were particularly stark as they were comfortably beaten by Atletico Madrid. Liverpool also stumbled against Galatasaray, while Newcastle United came agonisingly close to beating Barcelona at St James’ Park before a late penalty denied them a memorable victory.
The Premier League has had a rough time through the first two days of the Champions League knockout round 😬
— ESPN FC (@ESPNFC) March 11, 2026
🤝 Arsenal draw 1-1 after an 89th-minute penalty
❌ Liverpool lose 1-0 to Galatasaray for the second time this season
❌ Manchester City lose 3-0 to UCL rivals Real… pic.twitter.com/Z44RZVBMDg
With the second legs still to come, several English teams now face an uphill battle to keep their Champions League hopes alive. Manchester City, Chelsea and Tottenham must overturn three-goal deficits, a daunting task at this stage of the competition. Arsenal, Newcastle and Liverpool appear to have the best chance of advancing.
It is worth noting that five of the six Premier League teams played their first legs away from home, which could make the return fixtures slightly more favourable. Still, the early results suggest that English clubs may not have things as easy as the league-stage standings initially indicated.
The revamped Champions League format had seen Premier League teams dominate the table phase, prompting predictions that they could control the knockout rounds as well. But clubs that progressed through the play-offs — including Bodo/Glimt, Atletico Madrid, Real Madrid, Paris Saint-Germain and Galatasaray — have shown they are more than capable of challenging the English contingent.
Former England goalkeeper Paul Robinson, who was present at the Bernabeu, believes the talk of English dominance may have been premature.
Speaking on BBC Radio 5 Live, Robinson said: “We spoke about the England teams and dominance in Europe. Look at how easily they qualified, in the Europa and Conference leagues as well. But in the Champions League, not one English team has won.
“Manchester City were in a better place than Real Madrid. They were injury-ravaged. It looked like an under-23 side with a scattering of experience for Real. But they were clinical and well-coached and hit City on the counter-attack.”
“Unfortunately we couldn’t do it!”
— Football on TNT Sports (@footballontnt) March 11, 2026
Pep Guardiola reacts after Manchester City’s defeat to Real Madrid 🎙️@tntsports & @discoveryplusUK | @julesbreach pic.twitter.com/25sZ6GrUFU
Data analysts have also adjusted their projections following the first-leg results. According to Opta, the chances of all six Premier League clubs reaching the quarter-finals have dropped compared to the probabilities before the round-of-16 matches began.
| Premier League team | % chance before first leg | % chance after first leg |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 85.80% | 77.90% |
| Liverpool | 82.30% | 53.80% |
| Man City | 64.30% | 9.40% |
| Chelsea | 53.30% | 7.30% |
| Newcastle | 44.70% | 32.20% |
| Tottenham | 46.30% | 3.30% |
For now, the idea of Premier League dominance in Europe remains under scrutiny, with the second legs set to determine whether English clubs can restore their standing in the competition.
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