Will the next J&K CM be from BJP? The party's big plan for Kashmir

In line with its top boss’s exhortation to think big, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) seems to be ready to think audaciously about the one state it has never dreamt of ruling: Jammu & Kashmir. In the Lok Sabha polls, a combination of high vote share in Jammu and low polling in the Kashmir Valley ensured that the BJP emerged as the single-largest party in the state. It won three Lok Sabha seats, and the People’s Democratic Party the other three. [caption id=“attachment_1573359” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Rise in the valley. Reuters[/caption] As noted by Firstpost before, “by winning 32.4 percent of the votes cast, the BJP has effectively become the single largest political party in J&K in terms of popular votes, ahead of the Congress (22.9 percent), PDP (20.5 percent) and National Conference (11.1 percent). In actual numbers, the BJP got 1.15 million votes, the Congress 8.15 lakh votes, the PDP 7.3 lakh votes and the NC just under four lakh votes.” This unexpected performance has enabled the party to up the stakes in the assembly polls and even think of a majority on its own.  According to this Mint report, the party is planning Mission 44 – the halfway mark in an 87-member assembly – and will plan alliances in some regions for the same. The report even talks of the party announcing its own chief ministerial candidate. The J&K assembly has 37 seats for Jammu, 46 for Kashmir Valley, and four for Ladakh. Having won Jammu, Udhampur and Ladakh, which collectively account for 41 assembly seats, the BJP is wondering if it can sweep the polls in Jammu and Ladakh and come within striking distance of the halfway mark. The Mint report says the party plans to use the Article 370 issue – which politically divides the Muslim-dominated Kashmir Valley from the Hindu-dominated Jammu region – to maximise its gains in the latter region. To push its chances in Jammu, the home ministry is announcing a package of Rs 20 lakh for displaced Kashmiri Pandits to reclaim and rebuild their old homes in the Valley. While their actual return may be delayed due to continuing fears about safety and the still unsettled militant situation in the Valley, the BJP is clearly is mission mode with the Pandits and other prospective voters. Elections to Jammu & Kashmir are due in November-December. Unlike the rest of India, assembly elections in this state take place only once in six years. In the last election, the National Conference won 28 seats and now rules in an alliance with the Congress, which won 17 seats. The Mehbooba Mufti-led PDP, which won 21 seats, swept the Lok Sabha seats in the valley this time. It will be hoping to replace the National Conference in government the next time. In the run up to the Lok Sabha elections, it was speaking softly about the BJP. The BJP, which won 11 assembly seats in 2008, will be hoping to improve its tally to over 30-35 – though the stretch target may be 44. It is seeking to rope in the Panthers Party, which won three seats in 2008. On current trends, one thing is clear: even if the BJP falls short of the Mission 44 target, it could well become the single largest party in the assembly, assuming the National Conference and the PDP will take most of the seats in the Valley. The Congress could get wiped out, more so after the formation of the Modi government in Delhi last month. This will send the message that there is no gain in voting for a party that has lost power in Delhi. For Kashmiris, the equation with Delhi is all-important, given the huge role played by the army in keeping the peace, and the large Central subsidies received by the state. The big question is this: if the BJP becomes the biggest party in the state, can it get the chief ministership, when that would send shock-waves through the valley? Or will it prefer to prop up a chief minister from the PDP and play a power-behind-the-throne role? Or will the prospect of a BJP CM force the valley’s warring sides to kiss and make up to form another coalition propped up by a depleted Congress? Mission 44 is actually critical for the BJP if it really wants the chief ministership. Given equations in the state, even with 35-40 seats it may find it tough to get the necessary backing from the parties that dominate the valley. The only way the BJP can hope to achieve what seems unlikely is to rope in disgruntled some Muslim leaders from either the National Conference or the PDP, and see if it an win a  seat or two from the Valley. However, whichever way one looks at it, the BJP has clearly come a long way from being a bit-player in India’s only Muslim-majority state. It has much to prove here. The psychological impact of a “Hindu” party ruling Muslim-majority J&K—alone or in alliance—cannot be underestimated.