How BJP became the No 1 party in J&K and what this means

One of the less commented upon facts in the recent general election is the BJP’s spectacular show in Jammu & Kashmir. While everyone has noted that both the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) of Mehbooba Mufti and the BJP won three seats each, routing the National Conference or Omar Abdullah and the Congress in the process, the most unexpected number relates to vote share. While the PDP won Srinagar, Anantnag and Baramulla, the BJP won Jammu, Udhampur and Ladakh. (See details in the Election Commission site here.)

The big change is this: by winning 32.4 percent of the votes cast, the BJP has effectively become the single largest political party in J&K in terms of popular votes, ahead of the Congress (22.9 percent), PDP (20.5 percent) and National Conference (11.1 percent). In actual numbers, the BJP got 1.15 million votes, the Congress 8.15 lakh votes, the PDP 7.3 lakh votes and the NC just under four lakh votes.

How could this be? How did the national parties score over the regionals, and how did the BJP emerge on top?

The answer lies in the huge vote the BJP got in the Hindu majority Jammu region (which includes Udhampur), even while the Kashmir Valley saw low polling. Put simply, Jammu voted in great numbers and the Valley in smaller doses, thanks to fears about militant violence.

Thus, while the BJP polled 6.19 lakh votes in Jammu and 4.87 lakh votes in Udhampur, the PDP, which won all the three valley seats, got just two lakh, 1.75 lakh and 1.57 lakh votes in Anantnag, Baramulla and Srinagar.

In just Jammu, the BJP got more than all the votes polled by the PDP in the three valley seats.

The Congress, which is also strong in Jammu, got 3.6 lakh and 4.2 lakh votes in Jammu and Udhampur, making it the second largest party by vote share in the whole state.

There are three implications of this vote.

One, the separatists’ call for boycotting the polls has ensured that the BJP has become the biggest party in the state. Boycotts are thus counter-productive.

Two, if we assume that Jammu and Udhampur saw sharp communal polarisation, with Muslims voting either for Congress or PDP or NC, and Hindus opting more for the BJP than the Congress, we can expect new patterns of voting in the assembly elections - which could push the trend more towards the BJP, now that it is the ruling party at the centre.

Three, if the voting patterns consolidate around the Lok Sabha trends, and if the valley votes get divided between PDP and NC due to the controversy generated by the BJP’s stand on article 370, the BJP may well have enough seats to hold the balance in the next assembly.

In the last assembly elections, the NC won 28 seats, the PDP 21, the Congress 17 and the BJP 11 – with independents and smaller parties getting 10. (Total 87 elected members).

The NC and Congress are in a coalition currently due to this. But if the next assembly election reverses the Congress and BJP numbers, and the PDP and NC numbers, we will have an unusual situation where a PDP may have to run as a minority government or seek the BJP’s outside support. Or it may need the Congress to form a government.

Elections to the assembly are due in October-November, and this explains the elaborate political fuss over article 370. The BJP is using it to consolidate its Jammu base, the NC is using it to make a comeback in the valley, and the PDP – which has been less vitriolic about the Modi government than the NC – is trying to retain its electoral advantage without going for all-out war on article 370.

The game in Jammu & Kashmir is changing, and the separatists’ boycott is having unintended consequences.