UP civic election 2017: Yogi Adityanth's whirlwind campaign reaps rich dividends for BJP

The BJP has romped home as a convincing winner in the civic elections in Uttar Pradesh, reaffirming the sustained hold of Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath despite there being conflicting signals about his performance. That it has virtually swept the mayoral polls is a tribute to its organisational strength and the commitment of its cadres. Adityanath had made this battle a prestige issue. He undertook a whirlwind campaign, unprecedented for a chief minister during civic polls. That he has reaffirmed his popularity himself is beyond question. Though the BJP has left no one in doubt that it is in the driver’s seat, what is particularly noteworthy is the improved performance of the Bahujan Samaj Party among the opposition parties which has distinctly scored over the Samajwadi Party and the Congress. The Muslims, who had been largely gravitating towards the Samajwadi Party in all manner of polls in recent times seem to have switched loyalties to Mayawati’s BSP at least partially. Added to that are the votes of Dalits especially in Bundelkhand and western U.P. which the BSP has been able to garner as its traditional vote bank. The Samajwadi Party suffered because of the virtual split in that party and the sidelining of the party’s founder, Mulayam Singh Yadav, who had cultivated a special relationship with the Muslim minority. Mulayam had been nicknamed ‘Maulana Mulayam’ because of the way he went out of his way to keep the Muslims in good humour. [caption id=“attachment_4237675” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  File image of UP CM Yogi Adityanath. PTI[/caption] With Mulayam’s son, Akhilesh, at the helm now, that ‘special relationship’ has evidently come under strain. The inexplicably lukewarm attitude of Akhilesh to the civic elections, staying away from the electoral campaign as though he was above civic politics, also hit SP hard. By contrast, the BJP’s campaign was vigorous, with Yogi Adityanath in particular treating it as an acid test of his popularity. With BJP president Amit Shah adept at polarising voters on religious and caste lines, the dice was loaded in favour of the BJP from the word go. But the lack of serious campaigning by the SP and to a lesser extent the BSP made things worse for them. Mayawati’s party did campaign but she herself kept away from campaigning, like Akhilesh. The Congress has for many years been an ‘also-ran’ and nothing much was expected of it. That Rahul Gandhi once again failed to inspire Congress workers to regroup was indeed no surprise going by his track record. The chronic lack of cohesion in the state unit and the absence of a local credible leader also contributed to the Congress rout. In a major embarrassment for the Congress, the BJP won the Amethi nagar panchayat elections. Amethi as the constituency of Congress vice-president Rahul is considered a bastion of the party. The Gandhis would indeed have to think hard because at this rate, Rahul’s parliamentary seat could also be vulnerable with Union minister Smriti Irani mounting a tough challenge in 2019 when it goes to Lok Sabha polls. That of the 16 mayoral polls in the state, as many as 14 were won by the BJP showed the ruling party’s near-complete dominance in the civic polls which are normally a fair index of which way the wind is blowing. The other two were bagged by the BSP while the SP and the Congress drew a blank. The manner in which a combined opposition was able to thwart the BJP in the Bihar assembly elections through a ‘mahagathbandhan’ has for long been at the back of the mind of BJP-baiters in U.P. But the way the ‘mahagathbandhan’ broke up with Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar walking out of it is even more fresh in people’s minds. While the animosity between Mulayam and Mayawati has given way to a level of tolerance after Akhilesh sidelined Mulayam, the results of the civic polls are bound to give Mayawati the impression that distancing herself from Samajwadi Party could give her a sustained edge over the Muslim vote bank which has been a crucial element in the electoral stakes of the two parties. As for the Congress, it would be an uphill task for Rahul Gandhi to win back the confidence of the Uttar Pradesh voters which was lost decades ago. While he sorely lacks the guile of modern-day Indian politicians, he has nobody who inspires any confidence in the country’s most-populous state which has a whopping 80 seats in the Lok Sabha. Yet, it would be foolhardy to under-estimate the power of the voter. If the country is to be won, U.P. is crucial. If that be so, Yogi Adityanath or whoever is at the helm in the state needs to get their act together. Law and order is still a very weak spot and the state is still mal-administered. That has to change. The indices on education and public health leave a lot to be desired.