RJD becomes largest party in Bihar: The implications for the ruling JD(U)-BJP alliance and state politics, explained

While all eyes have been trained on Maharashtra and the turmoil that the state has experienced over a nine-day period, significant political developments have taken place in Bihar, which could have wider ramifications for the ruling Janata Dal (United) (JD{U})- Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) alliance.

Four All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) MLAs joined the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in the presence of state Leader of Opposition Tejashwi Yadav on Wednesday, pushing the numbers of the party to 80 in the 243-member House in Bihar.

We take a closer look at what’s happening in Bihar — from the MLAs that have switched, how it benefits the RJD and what happens to the JD(U)-BJP combine now?

Switching sides

On Wednesday, four of the five MLAs from the Asaduddin Owaisi-led AIMIM switched over to the RJD.

The four MLAs who joined the Lalu Prasad Yadav-led party are Mohammed Shahnawaz Alam, Mohammed Ansar Nayeemi, Mohammed Izhar Asfi and Syed Ruknuddin Ahmed. Tejashwi Yadav said that they joined his party as they were influenced by Lalu Prasad Yadav’s ideology, principles and policies aimed at public welfare.

17वीं बिहार विधानसभा में AIMIM के चार माननीय सदस्यों श्री शाहनवाज,मो.अनजार नईमी,श्री मुहम्मद इजहार असफी एवं श्री सैयद रूकनुद्दीन अहमद ने राजद की विचारधारा,सिद्धांतों और आदरणीय लालू जी की जनसरोकारी नीतियों से प्रभावित होकर AIMIM के विधायक दल का राजद में विलय करने का निर्णय लिया है pic.twitter.com/lrWJwxpNQm

— Tejashwi Yadav (@yadavtejashwi) June 29, 2022

Leader of Opposition Tejashwi Prasad Yadav welcomed the MLAs, being quoted by Indian Express as saying, “We firmly believe all the four MLAs would work towards our goal of social justice and secularism. We have always got the love of the people of Seemanchal. Our party again has a good presence in Seemanchal.”

The only remaining AIMIM MLA in Bihar is the party’s state chief Akhtarul Imam. He described the MLAs who left his party as Mir Jafars – a reference to the 18-century military general who helped the British win the Battle of Plassey in 1757, PTI reported.

“I am committed towards the ideals for which our leader [Asaduddin> Owaisi sahib stands,” Imam said. “He has told me not to lose heart and treat the event like a flood that washes away filth while mountains stand strong.”

In the 2020 Assembly elections of Bihar, the AIMIM had surprised all when it had won five of the 20 seats it had contested in the Seemanchal (northeastern Bihar) region. Political pundits had stated that the AIMIM had significantly dented the Mahagathbandhan (grand alliance) in general and the RJD-Congress in particular in the 2020 polls.

Number game

With the addition of the four MLAs, the RJD’s numbers have swollen to 80 Assembly seats, making them the party with the most seats.

In the 2020 elections, the BJP won 74 seats and thereafter split the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), a constituent of the National Democratic Alliance, and made three MLAs join them. With this move, the BJP became the single largest party in Bihar, with its numbers swelling to 77.

On the other hand, the Nitish Kumar-led JD(U) has a total strength of 45 MLAs. The total numbers for the ruling alliance is 127 (BJP-77, JD(U)-45; Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) with four and VIP with one). Besides, it also has the support of one independent MLA, who is a minister.

On the other hand, the RJD-led Grand Alliance now has 115 MLAs, including 19 of the Congress and 16 of CPI (ML) and the CPI.

With 115, the Opposition it is still seven short of the simple majority of the 122 seats, which is the magic number to achieve the simple majority in the Bihar Assembly.

What does this mean then?

Even though the Opposition is short of the majority mark, the boost in numbers does give the RJD a psychological boost.

The Deccan Herald reported that the move provides unmistakable evidence that in the game of political one-upmanship, Tejashwi is no novice and may give many veterans a run for their money if a situation arises.

Many political experts watching Bihar politics closely, also believe that in case of a split between the BJP and the JD(U), the Governor will have to call the largest party which is the RJD.

This will help, they believe, the JD(U) to keep a check on the BJP and be an equal partner in the alliance.

The JD(U) and BJP alliance in the state has had many hiccups, as the two parties have varying views on several issues. The differences in the alliance came to the fore again on Monday when the Speaker had to adjourn the session when the JD(U) didn’t turn up to discuss the BJP proposal of ‘best legislator’.

Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s party boycotted the discussion, which was hugely embarrassing for ally BJP. The two JD(U) ministers who were present when the discussion started also left when they realised that there was hardly anyone around from their party.

More than 20 JD(U) MLAs were present in the Assembly building, in state minister Shrawan Kumar’s chambers, but they stayed away from the house.

With inputs from agencies

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